Mansfield Town
vs
Macclesfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Macclesfield
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield
| Probability | Mansfield Town | Draw | Macclesfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 25.2% | 42.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.6% | 25.2% | 42.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield match preview
Mansfield Town faces Macclesfield in the FA Cup with a forecasted probability of 33% for a Mansfield victory, 25% for a draw, and 42% for a Macclesfield win. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Mansfield Town stand at 1.50, while Macclesfield is projected at 1.73.
Both teams have shown solid recent form, with Mansfield Town recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Macclesfield has a slightly better recent record, with four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 63%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 65%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mansfield Town and Macclesfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Mansfield Town and Macclesfield attack and defence ratings
Mansfield Town
Macclesfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macclesfield | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 32.6% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Macclesfield | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Macclesfield win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield stats
Mansfield Town and Macclesfield recent form
| Mansfield Town |
WWDWDD |
| Macclesfield |
WDWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.