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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Oxford City vs Leicester

2 – 4 Full time

16′Louis Page
25′Luke Thomas
31′Scott Pollock
45′Caleb OkoliHarry Howell
53′Emil Riis Jakobsen
59′K. Doyle
62′Joshua James Ashby
68′Z. McEachranBriar Bateman
68′K. DoyleOlabade Aluko
68′Bobby Reid
78′Bobby ReidTom Watson
81′Dejan TetekIsaac·Westendorf
81′Deago NelsonFernando Forestieri
82′Tom Watson
87′Luke ThomasChristian McFarlane
87′Emil Riis JakobsenAdmir Bristric

Court Place Farm, OxfordReferee: Andrew Humphries

Oxford City 25%
Draw 18%
Leicester 57%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 9
26 Possession % 74
3 Corners 8
6 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 0
5 Saves 3
166 Accurate passes 651

Oxford City vs Leicester overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford City vs Leicester

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOxford CityDrawLeicester
Model61.1%20.2%18.7%
Market13.2%17.3%69.5%
Final25.2%18.1%56.8%
Edge+12.0%+0.7%-12.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oxford City ↓ / Leicester → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 5% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Oxford City and Leicester expected goals

Oxford City 2.42
Leicester 1.31

Total expected goals: 3.73

Oxford City and Leicester attack and defence ratings

Oxford City

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Leicester

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Oxford City vs Leicester: result vs prediction

Oxford City 2 – 4 Leicester

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Oxford City vs Leicester markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leicester 56.8% 1.76 -12.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.9% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.3% 1.49 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 81.3% 1.23 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oxford City25.2%
Draw18.1%
Leicester56.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%
Both teams to scoreYes67.3%
No32.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)43.2%
12 (either side)81.9%
X2 (draw or away)74.8%
Handicap -1Leicester win7.9%
Push (exactly one goal)10.8%
Loss81.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.2%
1-18.4%
3-17.4%

Oxford City vs Leicester stats

Oxford City and Leicester recent form

newest first
Oxford City WWWLLW
Leicester DWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oxford City vs Leicester head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Oxford City vs Leicester odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 13.2%, draw 17.3%, away 69.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 7.65 5.15 1.34
Bet365 7.00 5.50 1.33
BetVictor 7.00 5.00 1.33
Betano 8.00 5.60 1.38
Betfair 7.00 5.50 1.33
Dafabet 8.00 5.60 1.35
Marathonbet 7.70 5.15 1.33
Pinnacle 7.00 5.52 1.38
SBO 5.99 4.67 1.31
William Hill 7.00 4.80 1.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.00 ▼ -0.95
X 5.33 ▼ -0.05
2 1.33 ▲ +0.05

12 snapshots recorded, from .