Oxford City
vs
Leicester
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Oxford City vs Leicester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford City vs Leicester
| Probability | Oxford City | Draw | Leicester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.2% | 19.2% | 15.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.2% | 19.2% | 15.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oxford City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Oxford City vs Leicester match preview
Oxford City enters the FA Cup match against Leicester with a strong probability of winning at 63%, supported by their recent form of three wins in their last five matches. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.42 for Oxford City compared to 1.23 for Leicester. Additionally, there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability that both teams will score.
Leicester, on the other hand, holds a 17% chance of victory and has shown mixed results recently, with two wins in their last five matches. Their performance indicates potential challenges, as they have struggled to maintain consistency. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oxford City and Leicester expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.67
Oxford City and Leicester attack and defence ratings
Oxford City
Leicester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
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- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Oxford City vs Leicester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford City | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford City win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford City | 65.2% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Leicester | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford City win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 34.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Oxford City vs Leicester stats
Oxford City and Leicester recent form
| Oxford City |
WWWLLW |
| Leicester |
LWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.