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England FA Cup · Full time ·4th Round Qualifying

Torquay vs Oxford City

0 – 1 Full time

28′Torquay
46′Oxford City
51′Oxford City
55′Torquay
72′Oxford City
83′Oxford City
92′Torquay

Plainmoor, Torquay

Torquay 41%
Draw 24%
Oxford City 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 1
61 Possession % 39
3 Corners 0

Torquay vs Oxford City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Torquay vs Oxford City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTorquayDrawOxford City
Model30.5%21.9%47.6%
Market44.4%25.1%30.5%
Final40.9%24.3%34.8%
Edge-13.9%-3.2%+17.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Torquay ↓ / Oxford City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Torquay and Oxford City expected goals

Torquay 1.75
Oxford City 2.20

Total expected goals: 3.95

Torquay and Oxford City attack and defence ratings

Torquay

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Oxford City

Attack 1.60 +60%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Torquay vs Oxford City: result vs prediction

Torquay 0 – 1 Oxford City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Torquay vs Oxford City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Torquay 40.9% 2.44 -13.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.4% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.2% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.5% 1.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Torquay40.9%
Draw24.3%
Oxford City34.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.4%
Under 2.524.6%
Both teams to scoreYes74.2%
No25.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.2%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)59.1%
Handicap -1Torquay win15.6%
Push (exactly one goal)14.9%
Loss69.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.2%
1-28.1%
2-27.1%

Torquay vs Oxford City stats

Torquay and Oxford City recent form

newest first
Torquay WWLL
Oxford City WWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Torquay vs Oxford City head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Torquay vs Oxford City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 25.1%, away 30.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.02 3.70 3.02
Bet365 2.10 3.60 2.75
BetVictor 2.15 3.50 3.13
Marathonbet 2.00 3.70 2.97

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.06 —
X 3.65 —
2 3.00 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .