Southend
vs
Berkhamsted
1 – 2 Full time
| 32′ | Southend | ||
| 42′ | Berkhamsted | ||
| 48′ | Berkhamsted | ||
| 65′ | Southend | ||
| 76′ | Berkhamsted | ||
| 88′ | Berkhamsted | ||
| 89′ | Berkhamsted |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 75 | Possession % | 25 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
Southend vs Berkhamsted overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southend vs Berkhamsted
| Probability | Southend | Draw | Berkhamsted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 24.1% | 35.8% |
| Market | 70.6% | 17.4% | 12.0% |
| Final | 63.0% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| Edge | -30.5% | +6.7% | +23.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southend and Berkhamsted expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Southend and Berkhamsted attack and defence ratings
Southend
Berkhamsted
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Southend vs Berkhamsted: result vs prediction
Southend 1 – 2 Berkhamsted
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Southend vs Berkhamsted markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southend | 63.0% | 1.59 | -30.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southend | 63.0% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Berkhamsted | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southend win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Southend vs Berkhamsted stats
Southend and Berkhamsted recent form
| Southend |
LWLW |
| Berkhamsted |
WWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Southend vs Berkhamsted head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Southend vs Berkhamsted odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.6%, draw 17.4%, away 12.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 5.20 | 7.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.26 | 5.20 | 7.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .