Carlisle
vs
Tamworth
2 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | Carlisle | ||
| 32′ | Carlisle | ||
| 45′ | Carlisle | ||
| 48′ | Tamworth | ||
| 70′ | Tamworth | ||
| 75′ | Tamworth | ||
| 96′ | Tamworth | ||
| 96′ | Carlisle |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
Carlisle vs Tamworth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Carlisle vs Tamworth
| Probability | Carlisle | Draw | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 25.2% | 31.1% |
| Market | 60.7% | 22.2% | 17.1% |
| Final | 56.4% | 22.9% | 20.6% |
| Edge | -17.0% | +3.0% | +14.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Carlisle and Tamworth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Carlisle and Tamworth attack and defence ratings
Carlisle
Tamworth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Carlisle vs Tamworth: result vs prediction
Carlisle 2 – 1 Tamworth
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Carlisle vs Tamworth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carlisle | 56.4% | 1.77 | -17.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carlisle | 56.4% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Tamworth | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Carlisle win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Carlisle vs Tamworth stats
Carlisle and Tamworth recent form
| Carlisle |
LWWL |
| Tamworth |
LWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Carlisle vs Tamworth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Tamworth | Carlisle | National League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Carlisle | Tamworth | National League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Carlisle vs Tamworth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.7%, draw 22.2%, away 17.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.05 | 5.47 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.05 | 5.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .