Carlisle
vs
Salford City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Salford City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Carlisle vs Salford City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Carlisle vs Salford City
| Probability | Carlisle | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 25.1% | 43.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.3% | 25.1% | 43.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Salford City
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Carlisle vs Salford City match preview
Carlisle faces Salford City in the FA Cup, with the model predicting a competitive match. Carlisle has a 31% chance of winning, while Salford City leads with a 44% probability. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Carlisle at 1.47 and Salford City at 1.76. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Salford City, occurring at a 9% likelihood.
Both teams have shown strong offensive capabilities, as indicated by the model's 63% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score. Carlisle's recent form includes two wins and three losses, while Salford City boasts an impressive six consecutive victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Carlisle and Salford City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Carlisle and Salford City attack and defence ratings
Carlisle
Salford City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Carlisle vs Salford City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salford City | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carlisle | 31.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Salford City | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.7% |
| No | 35.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.5% |
Carlisle vs Salford City stats
Carlisle and Salford City recent form
| Carlisle |
WLWWL |
| Salford City |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.