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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Carlisle vs Salford City

1 – 0 Full time

20′Luke Garbutt
25′S. Wearne
33′taylor allen
44′David Ajiboye
45′Braad nicholson
74′Ben WoodburnMacaulay Langstaff
74′Matt·ButcherBrendan Sarpeng-Wiredu
74′Ryan GraydonKallum Cesay
75′Callum WhelanJonah Lowes
75′Regan linneyLuke Armstrong
80′David AjiboyeJoshua Aaron Williams
80′S. WearneElliot Embleton
81′Oliver TurtonAbraham Odoh
90′Leo DuruJ. Ellis

Brunton Park, Carlisle

Carlisle 32%
Draw 25%
Salford City 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 2
52 Possession % 48
6 Corners 4
14 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
2 Saves 1

Carlisle vs Salford City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Carlisle vs Salford City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCarlisleDrawSalford City
Model28.0%23.3%48.8%
Market33.6%25.5%40.9%
Final32.2%24.9%42.9%
Edge-1.4%-0.5%+2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Salford City

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Carlisle ↓ / Salford City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Carlisle and Salford City expected goals

Carlisle 1.51
Salford City 2.02

Total expected goals: 3.53

Carlisle and Salford City attack and defence ratings

Carlisle

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Salford City

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Carlisle vs Salford City: result vs prediction

Carlisle 1 – 0 Salford City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Carlisle vs Salford City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Salford City 42.9% 2.33 +2.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.5% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.5% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.2% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Carlisle32.2%
Draw24.9%
Salford City42.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%
Both teams to scoreYes68.5%
No31.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.1%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)67.8%
Handicap -1Salford City win28.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss51.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.8%
1-29.0%
2-26.8%

Carlisle vs Salford City stats

Carlisle and Salford City recent form

newest first
Carlisle WLWWL
Salford City WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.

Carlisle vs Salford City head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Carlisle wins 2Draws 3Salford City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-28CarlisleSalford CityFriendlies Clubs0-2
2025-05-03CarlisleSalford CityLeague Two2-2
2024-11-09Salford CityCarlisleLeague Two0-1
2023-04-29CarlisleSalford CityLeague Two2-3
2022-11-19Salford CityCarlisleLeague Two1-4
2022-02-01Salford CityCarlisleLeague Two2-1
2021-09-04CarlisleSalford CityLeague Two2-1
2021-02-20Salford CityCarlisleLeague Two1-1
2020-12-02CarlisleSalford CityLeague Two2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Carlisle vs Salford City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 25.5%, away 40.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.77 3.70 2.28
Bet365 2.90 3.50 2.30
BetVictor 2.70 3.50 2.25
Betano 2.77 3.60 2.32
Betfair 2.80 3.70 2.25
Dafabet 2.85 3.70 2.39
Marathonbet 2.76 3.70 2.26
Pinnacle 2.73 3.81 2.37
SBO 2.51 3.22 2.17
William Hill 2.62 3.40 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.76 ▼ -0.06
X 3.65 —
2 2.27 ▲ +0.01

3 snapshots recorded, from .