Burton Albion
vs
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
4 – 0 Full time
| 23′ | Will Collar | ||
| 35′ | Raphael Borges Rodrigues | ||
| 42′ | M. O’Mahony | ||
| 45′ | Max Prickett-Reed | ||
| 51′ | Will Collar | ||
| 55′ | Raphael Borges Rodrigues | ||
| 58′ | Matthew DennisKain Adom | ||
| 58′ | M. O’MahonyGbemi Arubi | ||
| 59′ | Joel Nketia | ||
| 67′ | Joe Cameron LewisJason Sraha | ||
| 68′ | Max Prickett-ReedDavid Adegbola | ||
| 68′ | Mathew WarburtonJ. Daldy | ||
| 75′ | Charlie Webster | ||
| 77′ | Bruno AndradeFreddie Matthew John Robinson | ||
| 77′ | Sidik AtchaCurtis Hartley | ||
| 78′ | Charlie WebsterZac Scutt | ||
| 78′ | Curtis TiltH. Araujo | ||
| 80′ | J. Daldy | ||
| 85′ | Freddie FindlayCairo Taylor | ||
| 90′ | Zac Scutt |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
| Probability | Burton Albion | Draw | AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 29.7% | 43.5% |
| Market | 86.7% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Final | 71.7% | 14.2% | 14.0% |
| Edge | -15.0% | +5.1% | +9.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds attack and defence ratings
Burton Albion
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds: result vs prediction
Burton Albion 4 – 0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Oxford City v Leicester — match page
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 71.7% | 1.39 | -15.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 71.7% |
| Draw | 14.2% | |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | 14.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burton Albion win | 10.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 73.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.3% |
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds stats
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds recent form
| Burton Albion |
LWDDLL |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 86.7%, draw 9.1%, away 4.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.07 | 10.50 | 24.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.08 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.06 | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| Betano | 1.10 | 8.25 | 21.00 |
| Betfair | 1.07 | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.10 | 11.00 | 27.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.07 | 10.50 | 24.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.08 | 11.11 | 23.27 |
| SBO | 1.06 | 6.95 | 14.44 |
| William Hill | 1.08 | 9.50 | 26.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .