Burton Albion
vs
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Rushden & Diamonds
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
| Probability | Burton Albion | Draw | AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.6% | 29.5% | 39.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.6% | 29.5% | 39.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds match preview
Burton Albion faces AFC Rushden & Diamonds in the FA Cup, with probabilities indicating a competitive matchup. Our model gives Burton a 31% chance of winning, while AFC Rushden & Diamonds holds a 40% probability. The expected goals suggest a closely contested game, with Burton projected at 1.14 and Rushden at 1.34. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood.
Both teams have shown varied recent form, with Burton Albion recording a sequence of W-D-D-L-L-W, while AFC Rushden & Diamonds has a stronger recent performance of W-W-W-W-L-L. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 45%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 51%, indicating potential for an engaging encounter. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds attack and defence ratings
Burton Albion
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Wycombe
Before and after this match
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 30.6% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 9.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds stats
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds recent form
| Burton Albion |
WDDLLW |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.