Oxford United
vs
Stevenage
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Oxford United vs Stevenage overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford United vs Stevenage
| Probability | Oxford United | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.9% | 32.0% | 23.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.9% | 32.0% | 23.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oxford United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.81.
Oxford United vs Stevenage match preview
Oxford United hosts Stevenage in the FA Cup with a probability model indicating a 45% chance of a home victory, while a draw stands at 32% and an away win for Stevenage at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Oxford United, occurring at a 15% likelihood. The expected goals for Oxford are 1.24, compared to Stevenage's 0.81, suggesting a stronger attacking performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Oxford United has shown consistency with three wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Stevenage has struggled, recording just two wins and four losses in the same span. The last encounter between these teams resulted in a win for Oxford United, adding to their confidence heading into this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oxford United and Stevenage expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.05
Oxford United and Stevenage attack and defence ratings
Oxford United
Stevenage
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Wycombe
Before and after this match
Oxford United vs Stevenage markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 44.9% |
| Draw | 32.0% | |
| Stevenage | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 55.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.6% |
| 1-1 | 14.2% | |
| 0-0 | 14.1% |
Oxford United vs Stevenage stats
Oxford United and Stevenage recent form
| Oxford United |
DWDWDW |
| Stevenage |
LWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oxford United vs Stevenage head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Stevenage | Oxford United | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.