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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Oxford United vs Stevenage

0 – 1 Full time

4′Carl Piergianni
22′Tyler Goodrham
48′Carl Piergianni
54′Tugra TurhanMichael Mellon
63′L. SnowdenAidomo Emakhu
63′Greg LeighRuben Roosken
66′Saxon Earley
67′Alex Revell
70′Daniel Phillips
71′O. SandersonWanya Marcal
71′Ben BroggioChem Campbell
77′Phoenix PattersonJosh Magennis
77′Louis ThompsonTerry·Taylor
77′Harrison BradneyJ. Holton
77′Luka LynchJack Lee
90′Mo MissangaMaeson Vaughan

Kassam Stadium, Oxford

Oxford United 47%
Draw 29%
Stevenage 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 4
61 Possession % 39
9 Corners 7
14 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 3
3 Saves 2

Oxford United vs Stevenage overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford United vs Stevenage

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOxford UnitedDrawStevenage
Model48.5%31.3%20.2%
Market46.3%27.7%26.0%
Final46.9%28.6%24.6%
Edge+0.5%+0.9%-1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Oxford United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oxford United ↓ / Stevenage → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 8% 1 15% 14% 2 11% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Oxford United and Stevenage expected goals

Oxford United 1.30
Stevenage 0.75

Total expected goals: 2.05

Oxford United and Stevenage attack and defence ratings

Oxford United

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.60 -40%

Stevenage

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Oxford United vs Stevenage: result vs prediction

Oxford United 0 – 1 Stevenage

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Oxford United vs Stevenage markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Oxford United 46.9% 2.13 +0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.2% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score No 60.3% 1.66 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.5% 1.94 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oxford United46.9%
Draw28.6%
Stevenage24.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.8%
Under 2.566.2%
Both teams to scoreYes39.7%
No60.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.4%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)53.1%
Handicap -1Oxford United win23.4%
Push (exactly one goal)25.1%
Loss51.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.5%
0-014.1%
1-113.8%

Oxford United vs Stevenage stats

Oxford United and Stevenage recent form

newest first
Oxford United WDWDWD
Stevenage DLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oxford United vs Stevenage head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Oxford United wins 3Draws 1Stevenage wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-22StevenageOxford UnitedLeague One1-2
2024-04-19Oxford UnitedStevenageLeague One1-1
2023-09-30StevenageOxford UnitedLeague One1-3
2021-10-05Oxford UnitedStevenageEFL Trophy1-2
2017-08-29StevenageOxford UnitedEFL Trophy2-6
2016-03-25Oxford UnitedStevenageLeague Two1-1
2015-10-31StevenageOxford UnitedLeague Two1-5
2015-01-31StevenageOxford UnitedLeague Two0-2
2014-09-20Oxford UnitedStevenageLeague Two0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Oxford United vs Stevenage odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 27.7%, away 26.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.99 3.44 3.62
Bet365 2.05 3.30 3.70
BetVictor 2.00 3.25 3.40
Betano 2.10 3.35 3.40
Betfair 2.00 3.40 3.50
Dafabet 2.11 3.45 3.65
Marathonbet 1.97 3.44 3.62
Pinnacle 2.10 3.34 3.65
SBO 1.98 2.94 3.08
William Hill 2.00 3.10 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▲ +0.02
X 3.34 ▼ -0.05
2 3.56 ▼ -0.05

3 snapshots recorded, from .