Oxford United
vs
Reading
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Oxford United vs Reading overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford United vs Reading
| Probability | Oxford United | Draw | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 28.9% | 28.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.4% | 28.9% | 28.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oxford United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Oxford United vs Reading match preview
Oxford United will host Reading in this League One fixture, with the model giving Oxford a 42% chance of victory, while both teams share a 29% probability of a draw or a Reading win. The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Oxford United at 1.60 compared to Reading's 1.35. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Oxford, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Oxford United has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Reading has been in better shape, winning four of their last five games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 47%, and there is a 52% chance that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oxford United and Reading expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Oxford United and Reading attack and defence ratings
Oxford United
Reading
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oxford United vs Reading markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 42.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Reading | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 56.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Oxford United vs Reading stats
Oxford United and Reading recent form
| Oxford United |
DWWLWD |
| Reading |
DDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oxford United and Reading season so far
Oxford United record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Reading record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.