England FA Cup
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Peterborough
vs
Reading
0 – 5 Full time
| 9′ | Ethan Williams | ||
| 23′ | Daniel·Kyerewaa | ||
| 26′ | Daniel·Kyerewaa | ||
| 34′ | Jack Marriott | ||
| 45′ | Charlie Savage | ||
| 45′ | Udoka Godwin-MalifeAshqar Ahmed | ||
| 45′ | Ethan WilliamsVernon Masara | ||
| 45′ | Lucca MendonçaJames Dornelly | ||
| 45′ | Harry AshfieldLiam Kelly | ||
| 52′ | Harley Mills | ||
| 55′ | Matthew GarbettD. Ormerod | ||
| 56′ | Jack MarriottJamie Reid | ||
| 56′ | Kyreece Joshua LisbieRandell Williams | ||
| 59′ | Ashqar Ahmed | ||
| 60′ | Sam HughesJoshua Feeney | ||
| 66′ | Brandon·Singh Khela | ||
| 72′ | Jamie Reid | ||
| 76′ | Jamie Reid | ||
| 78′ | Josh KnightConor Masterson | ||
| 78′ | Daniel·KyerewaaEmmanuel Osho | ||
| 85′ | Liam Kelly |
Peterborough
31%
Draw
27%
Reading
43%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 278 | Accurate passes | 408 |
Peterborough vs Reading overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Peterborough vs Reading
| Probability | Peterborough | Draw | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 28.7% | 50.1% |
| Market | 33.7% | 26.0% | 40.4% |
| Final | 30.6% | 26.6% | 42.8% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +0.7% | +2.4% |
Why Reading
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Reading below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
42%
No goals
11%
Peterborough and Reading expected goals
Peterborough
0.89
Reading
1.48
Total expected goals: 2.37
Peterborough and Reading attack and defence ratings
Peterborough
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Reading
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
0.67 -33%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Peterborough vs Reading: result vs prediction
Peterborough 0 – 5 Reading
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Oxford City v Leicester — match page
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Peterborough vs Reading markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Reading | 42.8% | 2.34 | +2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Peterborough | 30.6% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Reading | 42.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.8% |
| No | 53.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Reading win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Peterborough vs Reading stats
Peterborough and Reading recent form
| Peterborough |
LLDLDW |
| Reading |
LDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Peterborough vs Reading head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Peterborough wins
3Draws
4Reading wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Peterborough | Reading | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-09 | Reading | Peterborough | League One | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-29 | Reading | Peterborough | League One | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Peterborough | Reading | League One | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-26 | Peterborough | Reading | League One | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-05 | Reading | Peterborough | League One | 0-1 |
| 2022-02-16 | Peterborough | Reading | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-09-14 | Reading | Peterborough | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2013-08-27 | Peterborough | Reading | League Cup | 6-0 |
| 2012-08-28 | Reading | Peterborough | League Cup | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Peterborough vs Reading odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.7%, draw 26.0%, away 40.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 3.64 | 2.31 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.55 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.75 | 3.64 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 3.74 | 2.39 |
| SBO | 2.58 | 3.28 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.75 ▼ -0.02
X
3.58 ▲ +0.06
2
2.30 ▲ +0.01
4 snapshots recorded, from .