Plymouth
vs
Peterborough
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plymouth
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 0.83.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Plymouth vs Peterborough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plymouth vs Peterborough
| Probability | Plymouth | Draw | Peterborough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.1% | 14.4% | 7.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 78.1% | 14.4% | 7.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Plymouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Plymouth vs Peterborough match preview
Plymouth enters this match against Peterborough with a strong probability of winning at 78%, reflecting their solid recent form of W-D-W-L-L-W. The expected goals for Plymouth stand at 2.84, indicating a potent attack, while Peterborough's expected goals are significantly lower at 0.83. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a 10% likelihood.
Peterborough is struggling, with their recent form showing L-L-L-D-L-D, and they hold a 7% chance of winning. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 71%, and both teams to score has a probability of 54%. In their last two encounters, both teams have secured one win each, adding a layer of competitiveness to this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plymouth and Peterborough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.67
Plymouth and Peterborough attack and defence ratings
Plymouth
Peterborough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Leicester
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats
- Bradford vs Doncaster
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats
- Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
- Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — match page
- Notts County vs Stevenage — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Plymouth vs Peterborough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.5% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 78.1% |
| Draw | 14.4% | |
| Peterborough | 7.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win | 58.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 21.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 3-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
Plymouth vs Peterborough stats
Plymouth and Peterborough recent form
| Plymouth |
WDWLLW |
| Peterborough |
LLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Plymouth and Peterborough season so far
Plymouth record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Peterborough record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Plymouth vs Peterborough head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Peterborough | Plymouth | League One | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Plymouth | Peterborough | League One | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.