Peterborough
vs
Luton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Luton
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Peterborough vs Luton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Peterborough vs Luton
| Probability | Peterborough | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 23.8% | 43.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.5% | 23.8% | 43.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Luton
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Peterborough vs Luton match preview
Peterborough faces Luton in League One, with the probabilities indicating a 32% chance of a Peterborough win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 44% chance of a Luton victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. The expected goals for Peterborough stand at 1.62, while Luton is projected at 1.90, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Peterborough has recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Luton has won three and lost three in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Luton has won both of their last two encounters against Peterborough. Additionally, there is a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Peterborough and Luton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Peterborough and Luton attack and defence ratings
Peterborough
Luton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Peterborough vs Luton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Peterborough | 32.5% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Luton | 43.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Peterborough vs Luton stats
Peterborough and Luton recent form
| Peterborough |
DLDWLL |
| Luton |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Peterborough and Luton season so far
Peterborough record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Luton record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Peterborough vs Luton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Luton | Peterborough | League One | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Peterborough | Luton | League One | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.