Milton Keynes Dons
vs
Doncaster
Garuda Lions Prediction: Doncaster
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster
| Probability | Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 29.8% | 35.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.1% | 29.8% | 35.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Doncaster
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster match preview
Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster are set to face off in a League One clash with both teams showing similar probabilities for the outcome. According to our model, Milton Keynes Dons have a 35% chance of winning, with Doncaster also at 35%, and a 30% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of expected goals, both teams are forecasted to score 1.23. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, while both teams to score stands at 51%. Recent form shows Milton Keynes Dons with a record of W-L-W-L-D-D, while Doncaster has W-L-L-W-W-L. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster attack and defence ratings
Milton Keynes Dons
Doncaster
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 35.1% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Doncaster | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% |
| No | 48.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Doncaster win | 15.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster stats
Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster recent form
| Milton Keynes Dons |
WLWLDD |
| Doncaster |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster season so far
Milton Keynes Dons record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Doncaster record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.