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League One · Full time ·Matchday 14

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster

6 – 1 Full time

2′Aaron Collins
21′Aaron Collins
44′Dan Crowley
45′George BroadbentRobbie Gotts
45′Jamie SterryBrandon Hanlan
56′Isaac Hutchinson
61′Leon AyindeBayley McCann
61′Alfie MayWill Keane
64′Jordan Thomas
66′Dan CrowleyBen Wiles
69′Aaron Collins
71′Sam NombeCallum Paterson
71′Samuel SilveraGethin Jones
72′Gethin Jones
76′Aaron Collins
77′Neill ByrneHakeeb Adelakun
79′Alex GilbeyDaniel Barlaser
79′Aaron Collinsibrahim fullah
80′Jordan Thomas
81′Callum Paterson
88′Robbie Gotts
89′Marvin Ekpiteta

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes Dons 47%
Draw 26%
Doncaster 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

25 Shots 12
11 Shots on target 3
47 Possession % 53
4 Corners 5
17 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 2
2 Saves 5
209 Accurate passes 240

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMilton Keynes DonsDrawDoncaster
Model48.1%26.4%25.6%
Market47.0%25.5%27.4%
Final47.3%25.7%27.0%
Edge+0.3%+0.2%-0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Milton Keynes Dons

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.18.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Milton Keynes ↓ / Doncaster → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster expected goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1.68
Doncaster 1.18

Total expected goals: 2.86

Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster attack and defence ratings

Milton Keynes Dons

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Doncaster

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster: result vs prediction

Milton Keynes Dons 6 – 1 Doncaster

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Milton Keynes Dons 47.3% 2.12 +0.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.5% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.5% 1.74 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.3% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.9% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Milton Keynes Dons47.3%
Draw25.7%
Doncaster27.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%
Both teams to scoreYes57.5%
No42.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.0%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)52.7%
Handicap -1Milton Keynes Dons win26.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss51.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
2-19.5%
1-08.5%

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster stats

Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster recent form

newest first
Milton Keynes Dons WWLWLD
Doncaster LWLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster going into this match

league record before kick-off

Milton Keynes Dons record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Doncaster record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Milton Keynes Dons wins 2Draws 6Doncaster wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-19DoncasterMilton Keynes DonsFriendlies Clubs3-1
2025-02-01DoncasterMilton Keynes DonsLeague Two2-1
2024-09-21Milton Keynes DonsDoncasterLeague Two1-1
2024-01-01DoncasterMilton Keynes DonsLeague Two3-0
2023-08-26Milton Keynes DonsDoncasterLeague Two2-1
2022-01-22Milton Keynes DonsDoncasterLeague One0-1
2021-10-02DoncasterMilton Keynes DonsLeague One2-1
2021-03-27Milton Keynes DonsDoncasterLeague One1-0
2020-09-12DoncasterMilton Keynes DonsLeague One1-1
2020-03-07Milton Keynes DonsDoncasterLeague One0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 25.5%, away 27.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.96 3.70 3.45
Bet365 2.00 3.50 3.50
BetVictor 2.00 3.70 3.40
Betano 2.02 3.55 3.40
Betfair 2.00 3.75 3.40
Dafabet 2.02 3.70 3.50
Marathonbet 1.94 3.70 3.45
Pinnacle 2.02 3.66 3.70
SBO 1.94 3.20 2.92
William Hill 2.00 3.50 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▼ -0.38
X 3.68 ▲ +0.18
2 3.42 ▲ +0.70

11 snapshots recorded, from .