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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster

3 – 0 Full time

22′Lewis Walker
36′Maziar Kouhyar
45′Harry CliftonIsaac Hutchinson
45′Neill ByrneDarren Robinson
45′T. NixonLeon Ayinde
59′David Davis
71′Cameron HargreavesMax Brogan
71′Jordan ThomasHakeeb Adelakun
75′David DavisOliver Tipton
79′Robbie Gotts
79′Callum StewartLayton Campbell
90′Alfie May

Aggborough, Kidderminster

Kidderminster Harriers 32%
Draw 25%
Doncaster 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 3
39 Possession % 61
2 Corners 4
10 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 1

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKidderminster HarriersDrawDoncaster
Model58.4%24.2%17.4%
Market23.5%24.7%51.8%
Final32.3%24.6%43.2%
Edge+8.7%-0.1%-8.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kidderminster ↓ / Doncaster → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster expected goals

Kidderminster Harriers 1.89
Doncaster 0.95

Total expected goals: 2.84

Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster attack and defence ratings

Kidderminster Harriers

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Doncaster

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster: result vs prediction

Kidderminster Harriers 3 – 0 Doncaster

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Doncaster 43.2% 2.32 -8.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.9% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 82.6% 1.21 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kidderminster Harriers32.3%
Draw24.6%
Doncaster43.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%
Both teams to scoreYes53.0%
No47.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.8%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)67.7%
Handicap -1Doncaster win6.2%
Push (exactly one goal)11.2%
Loss82.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-010.5%
1-010.0%

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster stats

Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster recent form

newest first
Kidderminster Harriers WLLWDW
Doncaster LLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.5%, draw 24.7%, away 51.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.96 3.82 1.80
Bet365 4.10 3.75 1.80
BetVictor 3.75 3.60 1.80
Betano 3.90 3.70 1.82
Betfair 4.00 3.80 1.75
Dafabet 4.10 4.00 1.84
Marathonbet 3.98 3.82 1.78
Pinnacle 3.96 3.95 1.83
SBO 3.60 3.35 1.69
William Hill 3.80 3.50 1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.96 ▼ -0.03
X 3.77 ▼ -0.01
2 1.80 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .