Luton
vs
Doncaster
3 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Jamie Sterry | ||
| 30′ | Jamie Donley | ||
| 41′ | Nahki WellsTudor Mendel-Idowu | ||
| 44′ | Callum Marshall | ||
| 45′ | Hakeeb AdelakunBrandon Hanlan | ||
| 51′ | Jamie Donley | ||
| 60′ | Owen Bailey | ||
| 68′ | Robbie GottsGeorge Broadbent | ||
| 69′ | Leon AyindeJordan Thomas | ||
| 69′ | Jamie SterryBayley McCann | ||
| 71′ | Kasey PalmerE. Lawrence | ||
| 72′ | Liam WalshDan Gore | ||
| 72′ | Jamie Donley | ||
| 73′ | Will KeaneHarry Clifton | ||
| 84′ | Bayley McCann | ||
| 90′ | Jordan Thomas |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 344 | Accurate passes | 291 |
Luton vs Doncaster overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Luton vs Doncaster
| Probability | Luton | Draw | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.8% | 25.8% | 24.4% |
| Market | 64.3% | 20.2% | 15.6% |
| Final | 60.7% | 21.6% | 17.8% |
| Edge | -3.6% | +1.4% | +2.2% |
Why Luton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.17.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Luton and Doncaster expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Luton and Doncaster attack and defence ratings
Luton
Doncaster
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Luton vs Doncaster: result vs prediction
Luton 3 – 1 Doncaster
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Luton vs Doncaster markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 60.7% | 1.65 | -3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 60.7% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Doncaster | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Luton vs Doncaster stats
Luton and Doncaster recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Luton and Doncaster going into this match
Luton record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Doncaster record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Luton vs Doncaster head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Doncaster | Luton | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Luton | Doncaster | League One | 1-0 |
| 2019-03-23 | Luton | Doncaster | League One | 4-0 |
| 2018-09-08 | Doncaster | Luton | League One | 2-1 |
| 2017-02-18 | Doncaster | Luton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2016-09-24 | Luton | Doncaster | League Two | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Luton vs Doncaster odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.3%, draw 20.2%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.65 | 5.97 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.45 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.65 | 5.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 5.02 | 6.34 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.92 | 4.76 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .