Luton
vs
Leicester
Garuda Lions Prediction: Luton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Luton vs Leicester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Luton vs Leicester
| Probability | Luton | Draw | Leicester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 22.1% | 22.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.2% | 22.1% | 22.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Luton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.37.
Luton vs Leicester match preview
Luton faces Leicester in a League One clash on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Luton has a 55% chance of winning, while Leicester stands at 23%, with a 22% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Luton, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, the model suggests a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 67%.
In terms of expected goals, Luton is forecasted to score 2.18, while Leicester is expected to net 1.37. Luton's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins, three losses, and a draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Leicester has been more consistent, winning four out of their last six games, with one draw and one loss. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Luton and Leicester expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
Luton and Leicester attack and defence ratings
Luton
Leicester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Wigan
- Reading vs Barnsley — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient
- AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe — match page
- Oxford United vs Bradford — team news & stats
- Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Blackpool v Mansfield Town — match page
- Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Luton vs Leicester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 55.2% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Leicester | 22.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.8% |
Luton vs Leicester stats
Luton and Leicester recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Luton and Leicester season so far
Luton record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leicester record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.