Leicester
vs
Wigan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leicester
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Leicester vs Wigan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leicester vs Wigan
| Probability | Leicester | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 30.3% | 22.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.8% | 30.3% | 22.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Leicester
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Leicester vs Wigan match preview
Leicester faces Wigan in a League One matchup, with model probabilities favoring Leicester at 47% for a win, while Wigan has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Leicester, with a 13% probability. Leicester's expected goals stand at 1.36, compared to Wigan's 0.87, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Leicester recording a draw, win, loss, win, draw, and loss in their last six matches. Wigan's recent results include a loss, draw, loss, win, loss, and loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 39%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 45%. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leicester and Wigan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Leicester and Wigan attack and defence ratings
Leicester
Wigan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leicester vs Wigan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 46.8% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Wigan | 22.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leicester win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Leicester vs Wigan stats
Leicester and Wigan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leicester and Wigan season so far
Leicester record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wigan record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.