Bradford
vs
Barnsley
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bradford
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Bradford vs Barnsley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bradford vs Barnsley
| Probability | Bradford | Draw | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.2% | 25.2% | 13.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.2% | 25.2% | 13.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bradford
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bradford vs Barnsley match preview
Bradford hosts Barnsley in a League One clash, with Bradford holding a strong probability of 61% to win, while Barnsley stands at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Bradford, occurring at a rate of 14%. The expected goals indicate a promising offensive display from Bradford at 1.74, compared to Barnsley's 0.71.
In terms of recent form, Bradford has recorded three wins followed by two losses, while Barnsley has drawn twice, lost twice, and secured one win in their last six matches. Historically, the last two encounters between these teams resulted in two draws, with neither side claiming a victory. The probabilities reflect a model-only assessment, contributing to a confidence grade of C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bradford and Barnsley expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Bradford and Barnsley attack and defence ratings
Bradford
Barnsley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bradford vs Barnsley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bradford | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bradford | 61.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Barnsley | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bradford win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.0% |
| 2-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Bradford vs Barnsley stats
Bradford and Barnsley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bradford and Barnsley season so far
Bradford record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barnsley record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 61% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bradford vs Barnsley head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Barnsley | Bradford | League One | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Bradford | Barnsley | League One | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bradford vs Barnsley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.5%, draw 21.6%, away 14.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.30 | 6.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .