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League One · Full time ·Matchday 8

Plymouth vs Burton Albion

0 – 1 Full time

23′Curtis Tilt
45′Kain AdomMatthew Dennis
56′Will Evans
59′Will EvansCaleb Watts
59′Matthew SorinolaJoe Edwards
60′Ronan Curtis
65′Matthew Dennis
70′Ronan CurtisXavier Amaechi
70′Tyreeq BakinsonBradley Ibrahim
70′Jack Armer
74′Julio PleguezueloMathias Ross Jensen
84′Sulyman Krubally
86′Mathias Ross Jensen
87′Kgagelo ChaukeSulyman Krubally

Home Park, PlymouthReferee: S. Mather

Plymouth 62%
Draw 21%
Burton Albion 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 3
57 Possession % 43
3 Corners 4
11 Fouls 4
1 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
358 Accurate passes 250

Plymouth vs Burton Albion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Plymouth vs Burton Albion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPlymouthDrawBurton Albion
Model62.7%19.3%18.1%
Market62.0%21.8%16.3%
Final62.1%21.1%16.7%
Edge+0.7%-2.5%+1.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Plymouth

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Plymouth ↓ / Burton Albion → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 4% 8% 5% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Plymouth and Burton Albion expected goals

Plymouth 2.55
Burton Albion 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.90

Plymouth and Burton Albion attack and defence ratings

Plymouth

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Burton Albion

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Plymouth vs Burton Albion: result vs prediction

Plymouth 0 – 1 Burton Albion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Plymouth vs Burton Albion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Plymouth 62.1% 1.61 +0.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.7% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.0% 1.45 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.3% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Plymouth win 42.5% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Plymouth62.1%
Draw21.1%
Burton Albion16.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.7%
Under 2.525.3%
Both teams to scoreYes69.0%
No31.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.3%
12 (either side)78.9%
X2 (draw or away)37.9%
Handicap -1Plymouth win42.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss37.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.9%
1-17.7%
3-17.5%

Plymouth vs Burton Albion stats

Plymouth and Burton Albion recent form

newest first
Plymouth WWWLWL
Burton Albion DLDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Plymouth and Burton Albion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Plymouth record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Burton Albion record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Plymouth vs Burton Albion head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Plymouth wins 4Draws 1Burton Albion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-04PlymouthBurton AlbionLeague One3-0
2025-09-27Burton AlbionPlymouthLeague One0-4
2023-04-29PlymouthBurton AlbionLeague One1-0
2022-11-19Burton AlbionPlymouthLeague One2-2
2022-04-09Burton AlbionPlymouthLeague One0-0
2021-10-09PlymouthBurton AlbionLeague One2-1
2021-04-17Burton AlbionPlymouthLeague One1-1
2020-10-10PlymouthBurton AlbionLeague One2-0
2018-12-29Burton AlbionPlymouthLeague One1-1
2018-10-20PlymouthBurton AlbionLeague One2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Plymouth vs Burton Albion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.4%, draw 22.1%, away 16.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.51 4.30 5.72
Bet365 1.53 4.20 5.75
BetVictor 1.50 4.33 6.00
Betano 1.55 4.20 5.30
Betfair 1.50 4.33 6.00
Marathonbet 1.51 4.25 5.65
Pinnacle 1.54 4.50 5.83
SBO 1.53 3.57 4.29
William Hill 1.62 3.90 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.51 ▼ -0.11
X 4.30 ▲ +0.30
2 5.75 ▲ +0.80

13 snapshots recorded, from .