League One
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Burton Albion
vs
Mansfield Town
2 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | Adedeji Oshilaja | ||
| 21′ | Elliott Hewitt | ||
| 23′ | Ryan Sweeney | ||
| 28′ | Jack Armer | ||
| 39′ | Will Collar | ||
| 40′ | Michael Smith | ||
| 45′ | Elliott HewittKyle Knoyle | ||
| 49′ | Louis Reed | ||
| 53′ | Liam ThompsonRhys Oates | ||
| 59′ | Michael Smith | ||
| 62′ | Michael SmithLuke Bolton | ||
| 62′ | Nathan Daniel Moriah-WelshLucas Akins | ||
| 62′ | Will CollarSulyman Krubally | ||
| 63′ | Caylon VickersMatthew Dennis | ||
| 63′ | H. AraujoKain Adom | ||
| 70′ | Lucas Akins | ||
| 75′ | Stephen McLaughlinFrazer Blake-Tracy | ||
| 82′ | Raphael Borges RodriguesEmeka Adeile | ||
| 90′ | Frazer Blake-Tracy |
Burton Albion
42%
Draw
27%
Mansfield Town
31%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 5 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 268 | Accurate passes | 271 |
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town
| Probability | Burton Albion | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 24.9% | 25.8% |
| Market | 39.2% | 27.9% | 32.9% |
| Final | 41.8% | 27.1% | 31.1% |
| Edge | +10.1% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
Why Burton Albion
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.29.
- The market prices Burton Albion below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Burton Albion and Mansfield Town expected goals
Burton Albion
1.84
Mansfield Town
1.29
Total expected goals: 3.13
Burton Albion and Mansfield Town attack and defence ratings
Burton Albion
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Mansfield Town
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town: result vs prediction
Burton Albion 2 – 2 Mansfield Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 41.8% | 2.39 | +10.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 41.8% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Mansfield Town | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burton Albion win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town stats
Burton Albion and Mansfield Town recent form
| Burton Albion |
LDWLWD |
| Mansfield Town |
DLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burton Albion and Mansfield Town going into this match
Burton Albion record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Burton Albion wins
4Draws
1Mansfield Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Mansfield Town | Burton Albion | League One | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Burton Albion | Mansfield Town | League One | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Burton Albion | Mansfield Town | League One | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-17 | Mansfield Town | Burton Albion | League One | 3-3 |
| 2023-11-21 | Burton Albion | Mansfield Town | EFL Trophy | 2-1 |
| 2019-11-12 | Burton Albion | Mansfield Town | EFL Trophy | 1-2 |
| 2015-01-10 | Burton Albion | Mansfield Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2014-08-30 | Mansfield Town | Burton Albion | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2014-01-01 | Mansfield Town | Burton Albion | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2013-11-26 | Burton Albion | Mansfield Town | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.2%, draw 27.9%, away 32.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.32 | 2.84 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.35 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.32 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.45 | 2.92 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 2.99 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.38 ▼ -0.12
X
3.35 ▲ +0.03
2
2.84 ▲ +0.20
9 snapshots recorded, from .