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League One · Full time ·Matchday 8

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon

1 – 1 Full time

30′Jayden Stockley
36′Dujuan RichardsZack Nelson
45′Glenn McConnellShayne Lavery
52′Andy Yiadom
59′Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
62′Kelland Watts
74′Callum MaycockDonnell McNeilly
79′Owen MoxonGeorge Hoddle
79′Gassan AhadmeLouis Appere
90′Zak·Bradshaw
90′Aron SasuRiley Horan
90′Steve Seddon

Abbey Stadium, CambridgeReferee: B. Toner

Cambridge United 54%
Draw 27%
AFC Wimbledon 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 3
63 Possession % 37
8 Corners 1
8 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
2 Saves 4
363 Accurate passes 196

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCambridge UnitedDrawAFC Wimbledon
Model60.7%26.4%13.0%
Market51.3%26.8%21.9%
Final53.6%26.7%19.7%
Edge+9.4%-0.4%-8.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Cambridge United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.63.
  • The market prices Cambridge United below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cambridge Unit ↓ / AFC Wimbledon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 16% 12% 2 14% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon expected goals

Cambridge United 1.63
AFC Wimbledon 0.63

Total expected goals: 2.26

Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings

Cambridge United

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.88 -12%

AFC Wimbledon

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon: result vs prediction

Cambridge United 1 – 1 AFC Wimbledon

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cambridge United 53.6% 1.87 +9.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score No 61.4% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.3% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 39.3% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cambridge United53.6%
Draw26.7%
AFC Wimbledon19.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.3%
Under 2.560.7%
Both teams to scoreYes38.6%
No61.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.3%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)46.4%
Handicap -1Cambridge United win34.3%
Push (exactly one goal)26.3%
Loss39.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.0%
2-013.9%
1-111.8%

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon stats

Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon recent form

newest first
Cambridge United DWDWLL
AFC Wimbledon DWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cambridge United record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AFC Wimbledon record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

4Cambridge United wins 1Draws 1AFC Wimbledon wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-03-26AFC WimbledonCambridge UnitedLeague One0-1
2021-10-30Cambridge UnitedAFC WimbledonLeague One1-0
2016-01-02Cambridge UnitedAFC WimbledonLeague Two1-4
2015-08-18AFC WimbledonCambridge UnitedLeague Two1-2
2015-02-24Cambridge UnitedAFC WimbledonLeague Two0-0
2014-11-29AFC WimbledonCambridge UnitedLeague Two1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.1%, draw 26.7%, away 22.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.82 3.50 4.28
Bet365 1.83 3.60 4.10
BetVictor 1.85 3.50 4.20
Betano 1.87 3.40 4.15
Betfair 1.83 3.50 4.40
Marathonbet 1.80 3.50 4.30
Pinnacle 1.84 3.67 4.45
SBO 1.74 3.11 3.69
William Hill 1.83 3.30 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▼ -0.04
X 3.50 —
2 4.28 ▲ +0.28

13 snapshots recorded, from .