Plymouth
vs
AFC Wimbledon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plymouth
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
| Probability | Plymouth | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.2% | 23.3% | 12.5% |
| Market | 62.3% | 21.6% | 16.1% |
| Final | 62.8% | 22.0% | 15.2% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +1.7% | -3.6% |
Why Plymouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon match preview
Plymouth hosts AFC Wimbledon in a League One clash with Plymouth holding a strong probability of 63% to win, compared to AFC Wimbledon's 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Plymouth, with a 13% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Plymouth stand at 1.89, while AFC Wimbledon is projected at 0.72, indicating a significant disparity in offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, Plymouth has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while AFC Wimbledon has two wins, three draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record shows both teams with one win each in their last two encounters. The probabilities and recent performances suggest a competitive matchup, but Plymouth appears to have the upper hand.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings
Plymouth
AFC Wimbledon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Notts County v Oxford United — match page
- Huddersfield vs Sheffield Wednesday — team news & stats
- Leicester vs Peterborough
- Bradford v Leyton Orient — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading — team news & stats
- Doncaster vs Burton Albion
- Wycombe v Luton — match page
- Stevenage vs Wigan — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 62.8% | 1.59 | +1.8% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 62.8% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 15.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon stats
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon recent form
| Plymouth |
WLWWWL |
| AFC Wimbledon |
DDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon season so far
Plymouth record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AFC Wimbledon record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | AFC Wimbledon | Plymouth | League One | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 1-2 |
| 2022-12-21 | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | EFL Trophy | 3-3 |
| 2022-03-08 | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-18 | AFC Wimbledon | Plymouth | League One | 0-1 |
| 2021-04-02 | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 1-0 |
| 2020-09-19 | AFC Wimbledon | Plymouth | League One | 4-4 |
| 2018-12-26 | AFC Wimbledon | Plymouth | League One | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-06 | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 1-0 |
| 2018-02-13 | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.3%, draw 21.6%, away 16.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.25 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.33 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.58 | 5.93 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.72 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .