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League One · Full time ·Matchday 10

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon

2 – 1 Full time

16′Jayden Stockley
17′Isaac OgundereFreddie Simmonds
25′Caleb Watts
30′Joe EdwardsMatthew Sorinola
65′Oliver IrowXavier Amaechi
76′Callum MaycockMarcus Browne
77′Ollie HarrisonZack Nelson
77′Caleb WattsTyreeq Bakinson
78′Wes HardingAlex·Hartridge
90′Aron SasuSteven Sessegnon
90′Xavier Amaechi
90′Xavier Amaechi

Home Park, PlymouthReferee: Stephen Parkinson

Plymouth 64%
Draw 22%
AFC Wimbledon 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 14
8 Shots on target 5
55 Possession % 45
4 Corners 9
10 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 0
4 Saves 6
257 Accurate passes 193

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPlymouthDrawAFC Wimbledon
Model64.2%23.3%12.5%
Market64.0%20.9%15.1%
Final64.0%21.5%14.5%
Edge+0.1%+0.6%-0.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Plymouth

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Plymouth ↓ / AFC Wimbledon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 13% 11% 2 13% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 8%

Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon expected goals

Plymouth 1.89
AFC Wimbledon 0.72

Total expected goals: 2.61

Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings

Plymouth

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.95 -5%

AFC Wimbledon

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon: result vs prediction

Plymouth 2 – 1 AFC Wimbledon

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Plymouth 64.0% 1.56 +0.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.6% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score No 55.4% 1.80 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.5% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Plymouth win 39.4% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Plymouth64.0%
Draw21.5%
AFC Wimbledon14.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
Both teams to scoreYes44.6%
No55.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.5%
12 (either side)78.5%
X2 (draw or away)36.0%
Handicap -1Plymouth win39.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.8%
Loss35.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.1%
1-012.9%
1-111.0%

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon stats

Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon recent form

newest first
Plymouth WLWWWL
AFC Wimbledon DDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Plymouth and AFC Wimbledon going into this match

league record before kick-off

Plymouth record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AFC Wimbledon record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Plymouth wins 2Draws 2AFC Wimbledon wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18AFC WimbledonPlymouthLeague One1-3
2025-10-18PlymouthAFC WimbledonLeague One1-2
2022-12-21PlymouthAFC WimbledonEFL Trophy3-3
2022-03-08PlymouthAFC WimbledonLeague One2-0
2021-09-18AFC WimbledonPlymouthLeague One0-1
2021-04-02PlymouthAFC WimbledonLeague One1-0
2020-09-19AFC WimbledonPlymouthLeague One4-4
2018-12-26AFC WimbledonPlymouthLeague One2-1
2018-10-06PlymouthAFC WimbledonLeague One1-0
2018-02-13PlymouthAFC WimbledonLeague One4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 20.9%, away 15.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.47 4.45 6.07
Bet365 1.45 4.33 6.50
BetVictor 1.45 4.50 6.50
Betano 1.50 4.25 6.10
Betfair 1.44 4.60 6.50
Dafabet 1.48 4.70 6.20
Marathonbet 1.46 4.45 6.05
Pinnacle 1.48 4.72 6.40
SBO 1.43 3.88 5.32
William Hill 1.44 4.20 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.46 ▲ +0.01
X 4.45 ▲ +0.15
2 6.15 ▲ +0.15

27 snapshots recorded, from .