Wycombe
vs
Luton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Luton
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Wycombe vs Luton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wycombe vs Luton
| Probability | Wycombe | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.4% | 22.1% | 37.5% |
| Market | 35.8% | 26.2% | 38.0% |
| Final | 37.0% | 25.2% | 37.8% |
| Edge | +4.6% | -4.1% | -0.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Wycombe vs Luton match preview
In this League One matchup, Wycombe faces Luton with both teams showing mixed recent form. Wycombe's last six matches include three draws and two losses, while Luton has struggled with three losses and one draw in their last five games. The model gives Wycombe a 37% chance of winning, a 26% likelihood of a draw, and a 38% chance for Luton to secure victory.
The expected goals for Wycombe stand at 2.04, while Luton is slightly behind at 1.96. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Luton, with a 7% probability. Additionally, both teams are predicted to score, and there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals, each at 76%. In their last two encounters, Luton has won both matches against Wycombe.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wycombe and Luton expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.00
Wycombe and Luton attack and defence ratings
Wycombe
Luton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Sheffield Wednesday — team news & stats
- Leicester vs Peterborough
- Bradford v Leyton Orient — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading — team news & stats
- Doncaster vs Burton Albion
- Stevenage vs Wigan — team news & stats
- Cambridge United vs Blackpool
- Mansfield Town v Bromley — match page
Before and after this match
Wycombe vs Luton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 37.8% | 2.64 | -0.5% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wycombe | 37.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Luton | 37.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.5% |
| No | 24.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Wycombe vs Luton stats
Wycombe and Luton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wycombe and Luton season so far
Wycombe record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Luton record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wycombe vs Luton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Wycombe | Luton | League One | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Luton | Wycombe | League One | 4-0 |
| 2021-04-10 | Wycombe | Luton | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2020-10-03 | Luton | Wycombe | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2019-02-09 | Luton | Wycombe | League One | 3-0 |
| 2018-11-10 | Luton | Wycombe | FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2018-09-01 | Wycombe | Luton | League One | 1-1 |
| 2018-01-30 | Luton | Wycombe | League Two | 2-3 |
| 2017-09-16 | Wycombe | Luton | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2017-01-21 | Wycombe | Luton | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wycombe vs Luton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 26.2%, away 38.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.56 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.56 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.75 | 2.46 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 3.07 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .