Milton Keynes Dons
vs
Luton
2 – 1 Full time
| 25′ | Alex Gilbey | ||
| 57′ | Ryan Wintle | ||
| 59′ | ibrahim fullahBen Wiles | ||
| 59′ | Nahki WellsCallum Marshall | ||
| 64′ | Alex Gilbey | ||
| 70′ | Jordan Clark | ||
| 75′ | Jamie DonleyE. Lawrence | ||
| 79′ | Aaron Collins | ||
| 83′ | Kasey PalmerDevante Cole | ||
| 84′ | Mads Juel AndersenIsaiah Jones | ||
| 84′ | Tudor Mendel-IdowuJake Richards | ||
| 89′ | Samuel SilveraCohen Bramall | ||
| 90′ | Aaron CollinsGethin Jones |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 25 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 146 | Accurate passes | 340 |
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton
| Probability | Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.5% | 23.4% | 47.0% |
| Market | 28.8% | 25.6% | 45.6% |
| Final | 29.0% | 25.0% | 46.0% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -2.2% | +1.4% |
Why Luton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Milton Keynes Dons and Luton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
Milton Keynes Dons and Luton attack and defence ratings
Milton Keynes Dons
Luton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton: result vs prediction
Milton Keynes Dons 2 – 1 Luton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 46.0% | 2.17 | +1.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 29.0% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Luton | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.1% |
| No | 30.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 27.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton stats
Milton Keynes Dons and Luton recent form
| Milton Keynes Dons |
LDDDLD |
| Luton |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Milton Keynes Dons and Luton going into this match
Milton Keynes Dons record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Luton record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-09 | Luton | Milton Keynes Dons | EFL Trophy | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.5%, draw 25.4%, away 45.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.72 | 2.07 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.14 | 3.72 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.39 | 3.84 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 2.76 | 3.17 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .