Mansfield Town
vs
Oxford United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mansfield Town vs Oxford United
| Probability | Mansfield Town | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 25.1% | 43.6% |
| Market | 36.4% | 26.9% | 36.7% |
| Final | 35.1% | 26.4% | 38.4% |
| Edge | -5.1% | -1.8% | +6.8% |
Why Oxford United
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Oxford United below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United match preview
Mansfield Town faces Oxford United in a League One clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Mansfield Town's last six matches have resulted in two draws, two losses, and one win, while Oxford United has recorded two wins, one loss, and three draws in their recent outings. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 35% for Mansfield Town to win, 27% for a draw, and 38% for Oxford United to secure the victory.
The expected goals for the match suggest a competitive encounter, with Mansfield Town projected to score 1.47 and Oxford United 1.76. Our model indicates a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mansfield Town and Oxford United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Mansfield Town and Oxford United attack and defence ratings
Mansfield Town
Oxford United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 38.4% | 2.60 | +6.8% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 35.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Oxford United | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.7% |
| No | 35.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.5% |
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United stats
Mansfield Town and Oxford United recent form
| Mansfield Town |
DDLLWL |
| Oxford United |
DWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mansfield Town and Oxford United season so far
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mansfield Town vs Oxford United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 26.9%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .