Oxford United
vs
Wigan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Oxford United vs Wigan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford United vs Wigan
| Probability | Oxford United | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.7% | 27.2% | 14.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.7% | 27.2% | 14.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oxford United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Oxford United vs Wigan match preview
Oxford United hosts Wigan in a League One clash on October 20, 2026. According to our model, Oxford United has a 63% probability of winning, while Wigan stands at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Oxford, with a 14% likelihood. The expected goals for Oxford are 1.79, compared to Wigan's 0.67, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Oxford United has recorded a mixed bag of results with three wins and two draws in their last six matches. Conversely, Wigan has struggled, managing just one win in their last six outings, alongside four losses. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals sit at 45%, and both teams scoring is at 42%, reflecting a cautious expectation for this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oxford United and Wigan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Oxford United and Wigan attack and defence ratings
Oxford United
Wigan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Peterborough
- Burton Albion v Bradford — match page
- AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town — team news & stats
- Doncaster v Stockport County — match page
- Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats
- Luton vs Barnsley
- Stevenage v Plymouth — match page
- Cambridge United vs Wycombe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Oxford United vs Wigan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 58.7% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Wigan | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.1% |
| No | 60.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
Oxford United vs Wigan stats
Oxford United and Wigan recent form
| Oxford United |
DWDWWL |
| Wigan |
WLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oxford United and Wigan season so far
Oxford United record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wigan record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.