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League One · Full time ·Matchday 12

Oxford United vs Wigan

2 – 1 Full time

26′Jensen Weir
31′Charlie Gray
44′Michał Helik
52′Connor BarrettChristian Saydee
52′Charlie GrayReggie Walsh
64′Tyler GoodrhamAidomo Emakhu
64′Mo MissangaLuka Lynch
67′Scott HoganJon Mellish
68′Cameron Brannagan
69′Christian Saydee
72′Fraser Murray
75′Gary Caldwell
76′Kai Andrews
79′Siriki Dembele
83′Archie HarrisK'Marni Miller
83′Bradley BurrowesChris Sze
84′Siriki DembeleLouie Sibley
85′Finley Burns
89′Mark Harris
90′Mark HarrisL. Snowden

Kassam Stadium, Oxford

Oxford United 51%
Draw 27%
Wigan 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 1
62 Possession % 38
9 Corners 1
13 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 3
0 Saves 4
465 Accurate passes 257

Oxford United vs Wigan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford United vs Wigan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOxford UnitedDrawWigan
Model58.7%27.2%14.1%
Market47.9%26.7%25.5%
Final50.6%26.8%22.6%
Edge+2.7%+0.1%-2.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Oxford United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Oxford United below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oxford United ↓ / Wigan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 16% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Oxford United and Wigan expected goals

Oxford United 1.58
Wigan 0.65

Total expected goals: 2.23

Oxford United and Wigan attack and defence ratings

Oxford United

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Wigan

Attack 0.62 -38%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Oxford United vs Wigan: result vs prediction

Oxford United 2 – 1 Wigan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Oxford United vs Wigan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Oxford United 50.6% 1.98 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.4% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score No 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.4% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.3% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oxford United50.6%
Draw26.8%
Wigan22.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%
Both teams to scoreYes39.1%
No60.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.4%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)49.4%
Handicap -1Oxford United win32.5%
Push (exactly one goal)26.2%
Loss41.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.9%
2-013.4%
1-112.2%

Oxford United vs Wigan stats

Oxford United and Wigan recent form

newest first
Oxford United DWDWWL
Wigan WLLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oxford United and Wigan going into this match

league record before kick-off

Oxford United record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wigan record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.

Oxford United vs Wigan head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Oxford United wins 1Draws 4Wigan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-02-13Oxford UnitedWiganLeague One4-2
2023-10-24WiganOxford UnitedLeague One2-0
2022-02-01WiganOxford UnitedLeague One1-1
2021-12-18Oxford UnitedWiganLeague One2-3
2021-02-14Oxford UnitedWiganLeague One2-1
2020-11-21WiganOxford UnitedLeague One1-2
2018-04-17WiganOxford UnitedLeague One1-0
2017-12-23Oxford UnitedWiganLeague One0-7

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Oxford United vs Wigan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 26.7%, away 25.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.95 3.50 3.68
Bet365 1.95 3.60 3.50
BetVictor 1.95 3.50 3.70
Betano 2.02 3.40 3.50
Betfair 1.95 3.50 3.80
Dafabet 2.02 3.55 3.65
Marathonbet 1.93 3.50 3.68
Pinnacle 1.99 3.56 3.88
SBO 1.95 3.15 3.35
William Hill 1.95 3.25 3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.09
X 3.50 ▼ -0.06
2 3.67 ▼ -0.19

6 snapshots recorded, from .