Burton Albion
vs
Bradford
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bradford
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Burton Albion vs Bradford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burton Albion vs Bradford
| Probability | Burton Albion | Draw | Bradford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.4% | 32.7% | 44.8% |
| Market | 28.4% | 28.0% | 43.6% |
| Final | 26.9% | 29.2% | 43.9% |
| Edge | -5.9% | +4.8% | +1.2% |
Why Bradford
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Burton Albion vs Bradford match preview
Burton Albion faces Bradford in a League One clash on October 20, 2026. According to our model, Burton Albion has a 25% chance of winning, while Bradford is favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 15%. Expected goals suggest Burton Albion will score 0.79, compared to Bradford's 1.07. Recent form shows Burton Albion with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Bradford is on a strong run, having won four of their last five games.
In terms of goal statistics, there is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% probability that both teams will score. Historically, in their last two encounters, Burton Albion has won both matches against Bradford, with no draws or wins for the latter. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burton Albion and Bradford expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Burton Albion and Bradford attack and defence ratings
Burton Albion
Bradford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burton Albion vs Bradford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bradford | 43.9% | 2.28 | +1.2% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 26.9% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Bradford | 43.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.8% |
| No | 61.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bradford win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.5% |
| 0-0 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Burton Albion vs Bradford stats
Burton Albion and Bradford recent form
| Burton Albion |
DLLWDL |
| Bradford |
WDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burton Albion and Bradford season so far
Burton Albion record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Bradford record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion vs Bradford head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Burton Albion | Bradford | League One | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Bradford | Burton Albion | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burton Albion vs Bradford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 28.0%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.18 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .