Stevenage
vs
Plymouth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plymouth
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Stevenage vs Plymouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stevenage vs Plymouth
| Probability | Stevenage | Draw | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 29.0% | 36.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.9% | 29.0% | 36.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Plymouth
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Stevenage vs Plymouth match preview
Stevenage and Plymouth are set to clash in this League One fixture, with both teams showing competitive form. Stevenage's recent record includes two wins, a draw, and two losses, while Plymouth comes into the match with a strong run of four wins and one loss in their last six games. According to our model, both teams have an equal expected goals figure of 1.32, suggesting a balanced encounter.
The probabilities indicate a tight match, with Stevenage and Plymouth both at 36% to win, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Stevenage, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging game.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stevenage and Plymouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Stevenage and Plymouth attack and defence ratings
Stevenage
Plymouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Peterborough
- Burton Albion v Bradford — match page
- AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Wigan
- Doncaster v Stockport County — match page
- Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats
- Luton vs Barnsley
- Cambridge United vs Wycombe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Stevenage vs Plymouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 36.1% | 2.77 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 34.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Plymouth | 36.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 63.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-0 | 8.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
Stevenage vs Plymouth stats
Stevenage and Plymouth recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stevenage and Plymouth season so far
Stevenage record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Plymouth record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage vs Plymouth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Plymouth | Stevenage | League One | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Stevenage | Plymouth | League One | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.