Doncaster
vs
Stockport County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stockport County
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Doncaster vs Stockport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Doncaster vs Stockport County
| Probability | Doncaster | Draw | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 28.0% | 44.5% |
| Market | 28.8% | 25.3% | 45.9% |
| Final | 28.5% | 26.0% | 45.5% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +2.6% | -1.4% |
Why Stockport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Doncaster vs Stockport County match preview
In the upcoming League One match, Doncaster faces Stockport County with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Doncaster has a 32% chance of winning, while Stockport County holds a 40% chance. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Stockport County, with a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 1.29 for Doncaster and 1.46 for Stockport County.
Recent form shows Doncaster with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Stockport County has three wins, one draw, and one loss. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Doncaster has yet to secure a win, recording two losses and one draw against Stockport County. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Doncaster and Stockport County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Doncaster and Stockport County attack and defence ratings
Doncaster
Stockport County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Doncaster vs Stockport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stockport County | 45.5% | 2.20 | -1.4% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 28.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Stockport County | 45.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Doncaster vs Stockport County stats
Doncaster and Stockport County recent form
| Doncaster |
LWWLLD |
| Stockport County |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Doncaster and Stockport County season so far
Doncaster record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stockport County record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Doncaster vs Stockport County head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Stockport County | Doncaster | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-29 | Stockport County | Doncaster | League One | 4-2 |
| 2025-12-09 | Doncaster | Stockport County | League One | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Doncaster vs Stockport County odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.8%, draw 25.3%, away 45.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.07 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .