League One
·
Full time
·Matchday 12
AFC Wimbledon
vs
Mansfield Town
0 – 3 Full time
| 22′ | Michael Smith | ||
| 27′ | Michael Smith | ||
| 42′ | Adedeji Oshilaja | ||
| 45′ | Andy Yiadom | ||
| 45′ | Andy YiadomHarry Cornick | ||
| 45′ | George AbbottRhys Oates | ||
| 45′ | Callum MaycockJames Tilley | ||
| 61′ | Nathan Daniel Moriah-WelshKyle Knoyle | ||
| 69′ | Ryan Johnson | ||
| 73′ | Jonathan Russell | ||
| 74′ | Stephen McLaughlinFrazer Blake-Tracy | ||
| 74′ | Freddie SimmondsOllie Harrison | ||
| 81′ | Zack NelsonSteven Sessegnon | ||
| 81′ | Liam ThompsonRegan·Hendry | ||
| 82′ | Louis ReedGeorge Maris |
AFC Wimbledon
27%
Draw
27%
Mansfield Town
46%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 307 | Accurate passes | 271 |
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
| Probability | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 26.9% | 48.9% |
| Market | 27.9% | 27.4% | 44.7% |
| Final | 27.0% | 27.3% | 45.7% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -0.1% | +1.1% |
Why Mansfield Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.09.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
77%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town expected goals
AFC Wimbledon
1.09
Mansfield Town
1.63
Total expected goals: 2.72
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town attack and defence ratings
AFC Wimbledon
Attack
0.63 -37%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Mansfield Town
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town: result vs prediction
AFC Wimbledon 0 – 3 Mansfield Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 45.7% | 2.19 | +1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Wimbledon | 27.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Mansfield Town | 45.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% |
| No | 45.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town stats
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town recent form
| AFC Wimbledon |
LLDDWW |
| Mansfield Town |
DWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town going into this match
AFC Wimbledon record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2AFC Wimbledon wins
4Draws
4Mansfield Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mansfield Town | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-13 | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | League One | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-27 | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Mansfield Town | AFC Wimbledon | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-04 | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | League Two | 1-3 |
| 2022-08-16 | Mansfield Town | AFC Wimbledon | League Two | 5-2 |
| 2016-01-16 | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | League Two | 3-1 |
| 2015-09-05 | Mansfield Town | AFC Wimbledon | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2015-03-17 | Mansfield Town | AFC Wimbledon | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2014-12-20 | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | League Two | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.9%, draw 27.4%, away 44.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.42 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 3.32 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 3.61 | 2.12 |
| SBO | 3.12 | 3.14 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.36 ▲ +0.71
X
3.42 ▼ -0.03
2
2.10 ▼ -0.37
11 snapshots recorded, from .