AFC Wimbledon
vs
Mansfield Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mansfield Town
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
| Probability | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 26.9% | 48.9% |
| Market | 35.1% | 27.1% | 37.9% |
| Final | 32.3% | 27.0% | 40.6% |
| Edge | -10.9% | -0.1% | +11.1% |
Why Mansfield Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.09.
- The market prices Mansfield Town below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town match preview
AFC Wimbledon faces Mansfield Town in a League One clash on October 20, 2026. According to our model, AFC Wimbledon has a 32% chance of winning, while Mansfield Town has a 39% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals are 1.18 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Mansfield Town, indicating a closely contested match.
Recent form shows AFC Wimbledon with a record of L-D-D-W-W-L, while Mansfield Town has W-D-D-L-L-W. In their last two encounters, AFC Wimbledon has not secured a win, with two draws against Mansfield Town, who also has no wins in this head-to-head. The likelihood of both teams scoring stands at 52%, suggesting potential for a competitive game.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town attack and defence ratings
AFC Wimbledon
Mansfield Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 40.6% | 2.46 | +11.1% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Wimbledon | 32.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Mansfield Town | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% |
| No | 45.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town stats
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town recent form
| AFC Wimbledon |
LLDDWW |
| Mansfield Town |
DWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town season so far
AFC Wimbledon record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mansfield Town | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-13 | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | League One | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 27.1%, away 37.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .