Blackpool
vs
Milton Keynes Dons
Garuda Lions Prediction: Blackpool
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons
| Probability | Blackpool | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 24.3% | 30.1% |
| Market | 41.5% | 26.2% | 32.3% |
| Final | 42.5% | 25.7% | 31.7% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -1.9% | -2.2% |
Why Blackpool
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Blackpool below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons match preview
Blackpool faces Milton Keynes Dons in a League One clash with a predicted outcome favoring Blackpool at 53%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with over 2.5 goals forecasted at 66% and both teams to score also at 66%.
In terms of expected goals, Blackpool is projected to score 2.06, while Milton Keynes Dons is expected to net 1.36. Recent form shows Blackpool struggling with four losses in their last five matches, but they did secure a win in their most recent outing. Milton Keynes Dons has also had a tough stretch, with four draws and one loss in their last five games. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Blackpool and Milton Keynes Dons expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Blackpool and Milton Keynes Dons attack and defence ratings
Blackpool
Milton Keynes Dons
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackpool | 42.5% | 2.35 | +4.1% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackpool | 42.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% |
| No | 33.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Blackpool win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons stats
Blackpool and Milton Keynes Dons recent form
| Blackpool |
LLLDLL |
| Milton Keynes Dons |
WLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Blackpool and Milton Keynes Dons season so far
Blackpool record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Milton Keynes Dons record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 26.3%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.55 | 2.89 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.31 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.55 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .