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League One · Full time ·Matchday 13

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons

0 – 1 Full time

7′Alex Gilbey
9′Josh Magennis
25′Aaron Collins
35′Carl Piergianni
44′Jack Sanders
62′Luther WildinKaelan Casey
63′Ben BroggioO. Sanderson
81′Sam Nombe
82′Dan CrowleyBen Wiles
82′Sam NombeCallum Paterson
84′Daniel PhillipsTerry·Taylor
85′Michael MellonPhoenix Patterson
90′Daniel KempChem Campbell
90′Samuel SilveraGethin Jones
90′Aaron Collinsibrahim fullah

Broadhall Way, Stevenage

Stevenage 50%
Draw 27%
Milton Keynes Dons 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 4
60 Possession % 40
7 Corners 9
9 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2
224 Accurate passes 117

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStevenageDrawMilton Keynes Dons
Model59.3%24.1%16.6%
Market47.5%27.9%24.6%
Final50.4%27.0%22.6%
Edge+3.0%-1.0%-2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Stevenage

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stevenage below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stevenage ↓ / Milton Keynes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 11% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons expected goals

Stevenage 1.89
Milton Keynes Dons 0.91

Total expected goals: 2.80

Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons attack and defence ratings

Stevenage

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Milton Keynes Dons

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons: result vs prediction

Stevenage 0 – 1 Milton Keynes Dons

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Stevenage 50.4% 1.98 +3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.1% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.4% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.7% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stevenage50.4%
Draw27.0%
Milton Keynes Dons22.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
Both teams to scoreYes51.9%
No48.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.4%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)49.6%
Handicap -1Stevenage win35.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss40.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-010.8%
1-010.4%

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons stats

Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons recent form

newest first
Stevenage WLWLWW
Milton Keynes Dons LWLDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons going into this match

league record before kick-off

Stevenage record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Milton Keynes Dons record

  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Stevenage wins 4Draws 3Milton Keynes Dons wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-07-26StevenageMilton Keynes DonsFriendlies Clubs2-1
2021-11-16StevenageMilton Keynes DonsFA Cup2-1
2021-11-06Milton Keynes DonsStevenageFA Cup2-2
2020-10-06StevenageMilton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy2-3
2020-08-18Milton Keynes DonsStevenageFriendlies Clubs1-1
2019-09-03StevenageMilton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy0-3
2019-03-16Milton Keynes DonsStevenageLeague Two1-1
2018-11-24StevenageMilton Keynes DonsLeague Two3-2
2017-10-03Milton Keynes DonsStevenageEFL Trophy0-0
2014-03-22StevenageMilton Keynes DonsLeague One2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.5%, draw 27.8%, away 24.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.97 3.34 3.80
Bet365 1.95 3.40 3.70
BetVictor 1.95 3.40 3.80
Betano 1.98 3.35 3.75
Betfair 1.95 3.30 4.00
Dafabet 2.06 3.40 3.65
Marathonbet 1.95 3.34 3.80
Pinnacle 1.98 3.41 4.13
SBO 1.95 2.95 3.16
William Hill 2.00 3.10 3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.97 ▼ -0.01
X 3.35 —
2 3.80 ▲ +0.10

7 snapshots recorded, from .