Stevenage
vs
Milton Keynes Dons
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stevenage
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons
| Probability | Stevenage | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.7% | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Stevenage
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons match preview
Stevenage will host Milton Keynes Dons in a League One clash on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Stevenage has a 48% probability of winning, while Milton Keynes Dons stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Stevenage, with an expected goals tally of 1.60 for Stevenage and 1.10 for Milton Keynes Dons.
Both teams show contrasting recent form; Stevenage has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Milton Keynes Dons has only one victory in the same period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 51%, and both teams scoring is projected at 54%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons attack and defence ratings
Stevenage
Milton Keynes Dons
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Reading vs Barnsley — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient
- AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe — match page
- Oxford United vs Bradford — team news & stats
- Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Blackpool v Mansfield Town — match page
- Cambridge United vs Plymouth
- Notts County v Stockport County — match page
Before and after this match
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 47.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons stats
Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons recent form
| Stevenage |
LWLWWD |
| Milton Keynes Dons |
WLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons season so far
Stevenage record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Milton Keynes Dons record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.