Leicester
vs
Stevenage
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leicester
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Leicester vs Stevenage overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leicester vs Stevenage
| Probability | Leicester | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 28.4% | 29.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.0% | 28.4% | 29.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Leicester vs Stevenage match preview
Leicester faces Stevenage in a League One matchup with Leicester holding a 42% probability of winning, while Stevenage has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 49%, and both teams are projected to score with a probability of 54%.
In terms of expected goals, Leicester is forecasted to score 1.45, while Stevenage is expected to net 1.19. Recent form shows Leicester with a record of L-W-W-L-D-W and Stevenage at L-W-L-W-L-W. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leicester and Stevenage expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Leicester and Stevenage attack and defence ratings
Leicester
Stevenage
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leicester vs Stevenage markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leicester | 42.0% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Stevenage | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leicester win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 58.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Leicester vs Stevenage stats
Leicester and Stevenage recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leicester and Stevenage season so far
Leicester record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.