Barnsley
vs
Oxford United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Barnsley vs Oxford United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnsley vs Oxford United
| Probability | Barnsley | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.1% | 24.8% | 53.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.1% | 24.8% | 53.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oxford United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Barnsley vs Oxford United match preview
Barnsley faces Oxford United in a League One clash, with the probabilities from our model indicating a 22% chance of a Barnsley win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 53% likelihood of an Oxford United victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 58% probability for each team to find the net, while the forecast suggests over 2.5 goals at a similar 58%.
In terms of expected goals, Barnsley is projected to score 1.14, while Oxford United is forecasted to net 1.86. Barnsley’s recent form shows four consecutive losses followed by two draws, whereas Oxford United has shown a more positive trend with two wins and four draws in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnsley and Oxford United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Barnsley and Oxford United attack and defence ratings
Barnsley
Oxford United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barnsley vs Oxford United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnsley | 22.1% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Oxford United | 53.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
Barnsley vs Oxford United stats
Barnsley and Oxford United recent form
| Barnsley |
LLLLDD |
| Oxford United |
DWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnsley and Oxford United season so far
Barnsley record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.