Barnsley
vs
Aldershot Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aldershot Town
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.45.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Barnsley vs Aldershot Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnsley vs Aldershot Town
| Probability | Barnsley | Draw | Aldershot Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 24.1% | 47.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.4% | 24.1% | 47.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Aldershot Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Barnsley vs Aldershot Town match preview
Barnsley faces Aldershot Town in the FA Cup with the model predicting a competitive encounter. Barnsley has a 28% chance of winning, while Aldershot Town holds a 47% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Aldershot Town, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as the model indicates a 66% chance of both teams scoring and a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of expected goals, Barnsley is forecasted to achieve 1.45, while Aldershot Town is projected at 1.91. Recent form shows Barnsley struggling with four losses and two draws in their last six matches, while Aldershot Town has been more resilient, recording three wins, two losses, and a draw in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnsley and Aldershot Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Barnsley and Aldershot Town attack and defence ratings
Barnsley
Aldershot Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Barnsley vs Aldershot Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldershot Town | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnsley | 28.4% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Aldershot Town | 47.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aldershot Town win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.0% |
Barnsley vs Aldershot Town stats
Barnsley and Aldershot Town recent form
| Barnsley |
LLLLDD |
| Aldershot Town |
WDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.