England FA Cup
·
Full time
·4th Round Qualifying
Tadley Calleva
vs
Aldershot Town
0 – 2 Full time
Tadley Calleva
61%
Draw
20%
Aldershot Town
19%
Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town
| Probability | Tadley Calleva | Draw | Aldershot Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.3% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.3% | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tadley Calleva
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
73%
No goals
3%
Tadley Calleva and Aldershot Town expected goals
Tadley Calleva
2.46
Aldershot Town
1.34
Total expected goals: 3.79
Tadley Calleva and Aldershot Town attack and defence ratings
Tadley Calleva
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Aldershot Town
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town: result vs prediction
Tadley Calleva 0 – 2 Aldershot Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tadley Calleva | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tadley Calleva win | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tadley Calleva | 61.3% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Aldershot Town | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% |
| No | 31.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tadley Calleva win | 40.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 38.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town stats
Tadley Calleva and Aldershot Town recent form
| Tadley Calleva |
DWWWLW |
| Aldershot Town |
DLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tadley Calleva vs Aldershot Town head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
0Tadley Calleva wins
1Draws
0Aldershot Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Aldershot Town | Tadley Calleva | England FA Cup | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.