England FA Cup
·
Full time
·4th Round Qualifying
Aldershot Town
vs
Tadley Calleva
2 – 2 Full time
Aldershot Town
28%
Draw
23%
Tadley Calleva
48%
Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva
| Probability | Aldershot Town | Draw | Tadley Calleva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.2% | 23.4% | 48.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.2% | 23.4% | 48.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tadley Calleva
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
Aldershot Town and Tadley Calleva expected goals
Aldershot Town
1.51
Tadley Calleva
2.00
Total expected goals: 3.51
Aldershot Town and Tadley Calleva attack and defence ratings
Aldershot Town
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Tadley Calleva
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva: result vs prediction
Aldershot Town 2 – 2 Tadley Calleva
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tadley Calleva | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aldershot Town | 28.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Tadley Calleva | 48.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tadley Calleva win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva stats
Aldershot Town and Tadley Calleva recent form
| Aldershot Town |
LWLW |
| Tadley Calleva |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.