Oxford United
vs
Stockport County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stockport County
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Stockport County is the favourite, not a value bet.
Oxford United vs Stockport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oxford United vs Stockport County
| Probability | Oxford United | Draw | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.5% | 29.9% | 33.6% |
| Market | 28.2% | 25.1% | 46.7% |
| Final | 30.3% | 26.3% | 43.4% |
| Edge | +2.1% | +1.2% | -3.3% |
Why Stockport County
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (our 43.4% × 2.05 − 1).
Oxford United vs Stockport County match preview
Oxford United faces Stockport County in a League One matchup on October 27, 2026. According to our model, Oxford United has a 30% chance of winning, while Stockport County is favored with a 43% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Stockport County, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Oxford United recording three draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Stockport County has achieved four wins and two draws in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Oxford United is projected to score 1.26, while Stockport County is forecasted to net 1.19. Our model indicates a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oxford United and Stockport County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Oxford United and Stockport County attack and defence ratings
Oxford United
Stockport County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oxford United vs Stockport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stockport County | 43.4% | 2.30 | -3.3% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 30.3% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Stockport County | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stockport County win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 66.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
Oxford United vs Stockport County stats
Oxford United and Stockport County recent form
| Oxford United |
DWDWDW |
| Stockport County |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oxford United and Stockport County season so far
Oxford United record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stockport County record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Oxford United vs Stockport County head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Oxford United vs Stockport County odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.2%, draw 25.1%, away 46.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.28 | 3.66 | 2.03 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.90 | 1.98 |
| Marathonbet | 3.28 | 3.66 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.32 | 3.94 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .