Wigan
vs
Mansfield Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mansfield Town
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mansfield Town is the favourite, not a value bet.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wigan vs Mansfield Town
| Probability | Wigan | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.6% | 26.2% | 47.1% |
| Market | 29.2% | 26.4% | 44.5% |
| Final | 28.5% | 26.3% | 45.1% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -0.0% | +0.7% |
Why Mansfield Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (our 45.1% × 2.18 − 1).
Wigan vs Mansfield Town match preview
Wigan faces Mansfield Town in a League One clash on November 3, 2026. According to our model, Wigan has a 29% chance of winning, while Mansfield Town is favored at 45%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.22 for Wigan and 1.69 for Mansfield Town. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Wigan recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Mansfield Town has two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same period.
In terms of scoring, our model suggests a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters shows Wigan with two wins, Mansfield Town with one, and two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wigan and Mansfield Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Wigan and Mansfield Town attack and defence ratings
Wigan
Mansfield Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wigan vs Mansfield Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.7% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wigan | 28.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Mansfield Town | 45.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.1% |
Wigan vs Mansfield Town stats
Wigan and Mansfield Town recent form
| Wigan |
WLLLWL |
| Mansfield Town |
LWWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wigan and Mansfield Town season so far
Wigan record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Wigan | Mansfield Town | League One | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mansfield Town | Wigan | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-04 | Mansfield Town | Wigan | League One | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-14 | Mansfield Town | Wigan | England FA Cup | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-22 | Wigan | Mansfield Town | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.2%, draw 26.4%, away 44.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.54 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 3.54 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.30 | 3.74 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.93 | 3.11 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .