Boreham Wood
vs
Wigan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Boreham Wood
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Boreham Wood vs Wigan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boreham Wood vs Wigan
| Probability | Boreham Wood | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.0% | 21.8% | 11.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.0% | 21.8% | 11.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Boreham Wood
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Boreham Wood vs Wigan match preview
Boreham Wood enters the FA Cup match against Wigan with a strong probability of winning at 67%, while Wigan's chances sit at 11%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, with Boreham Wood expected to generate 2.01 expected goals compared to Wigan's 0.71. Recent form favors Boreham Wood, who have recorded four wins in their last six matches, while Wigan has struggled with only one win in their last six outings.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is estimated at 51%, and both teams to score is projected at 45%. This suggests that while Boreham Wood is favored to dominate the game, Wigan may find it challenging to breach their defense. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boreham Wood and Wigan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Boreham Wood and Wigan attack and defence ratings
Boreham Wood
Wigan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Boreham Wood vs Wigan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boreham Wood | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Boreham Wood win | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boreham Wood | 67.0% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Wigan | 11.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boreham Wood win | 42.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 33.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Boreham Wood vs Wigan stats
Boreham Wood and Wigan recent form
| Boreham Wood |
WLWWWD |
| Wigan |
LLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.