Mansfield Town
vs
Notts County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mansfield Town
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.99.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mansfield Town vs Notts County
| Probability | Mansfield Town | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.0% | 25.3% | 19.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.0% | 25.3% | 19.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mansfield Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Mansfield Town vs Notts County match preview
Mansfield Town is favored to win against Notts County, with a 55% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance of occurring. Mansfield Town's expected goals stand at 1.79, while Notts County's is significantly lower at 0.99. Recent form shows Mansfield Town has been relatively strong, with two wins and three draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Notts County has struggled, managing just one win and suffering five losses in their most recent outings.
The probabilities for a draw and Notts County winning are 25% and 20%, respectively. Additionally, there is a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score. Despite Mansfield's favorable position, the confidence grade remains at C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mansfield Town and Notts County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Mansfield Town and Notts County attack and defence ratings
Mansfield Town
Notts County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mansfield Town vs Notts County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 55.0% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Notts County | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 45.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Mansfield Town vs Notts County stats
Mansfield Town and Notts County recent form
| Mansfield Town |
WWDWDD |
| Notts County |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mansfield Town and Notts County season so far
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Notts County record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.