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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Altrincham vs Notts County

2 – 2 Full time

28′Jacob Bedeau
34′Scott Robertson
39′Lucas Weaver
59′Lewis Banks
61′Nicholas TsaroullaRosaire Longelo
61′Luka SmythHindolo Mustapha
61′Lucas NessJames Gibbons
61′Scott RobertsonMax Sanders
69′Lewis Banks
78′Rory Finneranlee ndlovu
80′James Gibbons
84′Callum Roberts
89′Matthew KosyloE. Jones
89′Sam BarnesK. Breckin
90′D. KanuMatt Palmer
97′Max Sanders
98′Tom CrawfordJ. Hinchy
105′Lucas WeaverKahrel Azariah Reddin
105′Otis KhanKristian Dennis
123′Max Sanders
123′Kristian Dennis
124′Callum Roberts
128′J. Hinchy
129′Rosaire Longelo

Moss Lane, Altrincham

Altrincham 28%
Draw 24%
Notts County 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 26
8 Shots on target 10
46 Possession % 54
8 Corners 11
11 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 3
8 Saves 6
297 Accurate passes 342

Altrincham vs Notts County overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Altrincham vs Notts County

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAltrinchamDrawNotts County
Model50.2%27.6%22.2%
Market21.2%23.5%55.3%
Final28.5%24.5%47.0%
Edge+7.2%+1.0%-8.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Altrincham ↓ / Notts County → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Altrincham and Notts County expected goals

Altrincham 1.59
Notts County 0.97

Total expected goals: 2.56

Altrincham and Notts County attack and defence ratings

Altrincham

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Notts County

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Altrincham vs Notts County: result vs prediction

Altrincham 2 – 2 Notts County

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Altrincham vs Notts County markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Notts County 47.0% 2.13 -8.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.9% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.8% 1.97 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.5% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 78.1% 1.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Altrincham28.5%
Draw24.5%
Notts County47.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.1%
Under 2.552.9%
Both teams to scoreYes50.8%
No49.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.0%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)71.5%
Handicap -1Notts County win8.1%
Push (exactly one goal)13.8%
Loss78.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-011.0%
2-09.7%

Altrincham vs Notts County stats

Altrincham and Notts County recent form

newest first
Altrincham WDLWDD
Notts County WDWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Altrincham vs Notts County head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

1Altrincham wins 1Draws 5Notts County wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-28AltrinchamNotts CountyNational League0-2
2022-10-01Notts CountyAltrinchamNational League3-1
2022-05-07Notts CountyAltrinchamNational League3-0
2021-12-18Notts CountyAltrinchamFA Trophy2-1
2021-09-25AltrinchamNotts CountyNational League1-0
2021-05-01AltrinchamNotts CountyNational League1-1
2020-10-07Notts CountyAltrinchamNational League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Altrincham vs Notts County odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 23.5%, away 55.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.22 4.05 1.71
Bet365 4.75 3.80 1.67
BetVictor 4.40 3.75 1.65
Betano 4.65 3.85 1.67
Betfair 4.33 4.00 1.67
Dafabet 4.80 4.10 1.71
Marathonbet 4.25 4.05 1.69
Pinnacle 4.51 4.27 1.68
SBO 3.95 3.46 1.65
William Hill 4.20 3.90 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.37 ▲ +0.17
X 3.95 ▼ -0.05
2 1.67 ▼ -0.04

4 snapshots recorded, from .