Altrincham
vs
Notts County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Altrincham
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Altrincham vs Notts County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Altrincham vs Notts County
| Probability | Altrincham | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 26.3% | 18.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.9% | 26.3% | 18.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Altrincham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Altrincham vs Notts County match preview
Altrincham will host Notts County in the FA Cup on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Altrincham has a 55% probability of winning, while Notts County stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Altrincham, with an 11% likelihood. The expected goals for Altrincham is 1.69, compared to 0.90 for Notts County.
In terms of recent form, Altrincham has recorded a sequence of W-D-L-W-D-D, indicating a mixed but stable performance. In contrast, Notts County has struggled, with a recent record of D-W-L-L-L-L. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48%, and both teams are projected to score at a rate of 50%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Altrincham and Notts County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Altrincham and Notts County attack and defence ratings
Altrincham
Notts County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
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- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Altrincham vs Notts County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Altrincham | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Altrincham | 54.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Notts County | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Altrincham win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
Altrincham vs Notts County stats
Altrincham and Notts County recent form
| Altrincham |
WDLWDD |
| Notts County |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.