Notts County
vs
Stevenage
Garuda Lions Prediction: Notts County
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Notts County vs Stevenage overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Notts County vs Stevenage
| Probability | Notts County | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.5% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.5% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Notts County vs Stevenage match preview
Notts County will face Stevenage in a League One matchup on November 21, 2026. According to our model, Notts County has a 38% probability of winning, while Stevenage stands at 31%, and a draw is estimated at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Notts County, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals for Notts County are 1.17, compared to 1.04 for Stevenage.
In terms of recent form, Notts County has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Stevenage has achieved three wins, one draw, and one loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 38%, and the probability of both teams scoring is 46%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Notts County and Stevenage expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Notts County and Stevenage attack and defence ratings
Notts County
Stevenage
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Leicester
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats
- Bradford vs Doncaster
- Plymouth v Peterborough — match page
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats
- Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
- Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — match page
Before and after this match
Notts County vs Stevenage markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 37.5% |
| Draw | 31.6% | |
| Stevenage | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Notts County win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-0 | 11.5% |
Notts County vs Stevenage stats
Notts County and Stevenage recent form
| Notts County |
DWDWLL |
| Stevenage |
WDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Notts County and Stevenage season so far
Notts County record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.