Garuda Lions
Today
League One · Full time ·Matchday 13

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient

2 – 1 Full time

32′M. O’Mahony
33′Alexander George Henry Gilbert
56′Kgagelo Chauke
58′M. O’MahonyGbemi Arubi
63′James MorrisPhillip Chinedu
64′Dane ScarlettAaron Connolly
73′Isaac HaydenArmando Dobra
77′H. AraujoEmeka Adeile
80′Jaze KabiaOliver O'Neill
86′Will Collar

Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent

Burton Albion 36%
Draw 29%
Leyton Orient 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 2
52 Possession % 48
9 Corners 4
10 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2
1 Saves 5
309 Accurate passes 283

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBurton AlbionDrawLeyton Orient
Model35.2%31.0%33.8%
Market35.9%28.3%35.9%
Final35.7%28.9%35.4%
Edge-0.2%+0.7%-0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Burton Albion ↓ / Leyton Orient → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 10% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 11%

Burton Albion and Leyton Orient expected goals

Burton Albion 1.17
Leyton Orient 1.14

Total expected goals: 2.30

Burton Albion and Leyton Orient attack and defence ratings

Burton Albion

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Leyton Orient

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient: result vs prediction

Burton Albion 2 – 1 Leyton Orient

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Burton Albion 35.7% 2.80 -0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.6% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score No 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.1% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.8% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Burton Albion35.7%
Draw28.9%
Leyton Orient35.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.4%
Under 2.559.6%
Both teams to scoreYes48.1%
No51.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.6%
12 (either side)71.1%
X2 (draw or away)64.3%
Handicap -1Burton Albion win15.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss64.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-011.3%
1-010.3%

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient stats

Burton Albion and Leyton Orient recent form

newest first
Burton Albion DDLLWD
Leyton Orient LWDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Burton Albion and Leyton Orient going into this match

league record before kick-off

Burton Albion record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.

Leyton Orient record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

2Burton Albion wins 3Draws 1Leyton Orient wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02Leyton OrientBurton AlbionLeague One2-2
2025-11-29Burton AlbionLeyton OrientLeague One0-4
2025-04-01Burton AlbionLeyton OrientLeague One2-1
2024-12-14Leyton OrientBurton AlbionLeague One0-0
2024-02-17Leyton OrientBurton AlbionLeague One1-2
2023-10-28Burton AlbionLeyton OrientLeague One0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 28.2%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.59 3.30 2.59
Bet365 2.60 3.25 2.60
BetVictor 2.60 3.40 2.60
Betano 2.57 3.25 2.67
Betfair 2.63 3.30 2.70
Dafabet 2.60 3.35 2.70
Marathonbet 2.59 3.30 2.59
Pinnacle 2.69 3.35 2.72
SBO 2.39 2.95 2.42
William Hill 2.50 3.10 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▲ +0.03
X 3.30 ▼ -0.03
2 2.60 ▲ +0.03

9 snapshots recorded, from .