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League One · Full time ·Matchday 11

Peterborough vs Burton Albion

2 – 2 Full time

2′Owura Edwards
30′Charlie Webster
45′Matthew DennisGbemi Arubi
60′F. DelapSulyman Krubally
66′Harry AshfieldBrandon·Singh Khela
69′Owura EdwardsMatthew Garbett
77′Carl Johnston
78′Raphael Borges Rodrigues
79′Brandon·Singh Khela
81′Harry LeonardD. Ormerod
82′Bolu ShofowokeVernon Masara
82′Raphael Borges RodriguesEmeka Adeile
82′Caylon VickersM. O’Mahony
89′Gbemi Arubi
90′Matthew Garbett
90′R. Savage

ABAX Stadium, Peterborough

Peterborough 49%
Draw 25%
Burton Albion 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 6
55 Possession % 45
8 Corners 4
11 Fouls 10
5 Offsides 3
4 Saves 4
355 Accurate passes 274

Peterborough vs Burton Albion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Peterborough vs Burton Albion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPeterboroughDrawBurton Albion
Model44.3%26.6%29.1%
Market50.8%24.0%25.2%
Final49.1%24.6%26.2%
Edge-6.5%+2.6%+3.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Peterborough

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.29.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Peterborough ↓ / Burton Albion → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 7%

Peterborough and Burton Albion expected goals

Peterborough 1.63
Burton Albion 1.29

Total expected goals: 2.92

Peterborough and Burton Albion attack and defence ratings

Peterborough

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Burton Albion

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Peterborough vs Burton Albion: result vs prediction

Peterborough 2 – 2 Burton Albion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Peterborough vs Burton Albion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Peterborough 49.1% 2.04 -6.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.8% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.4% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.7% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Peterborough49.1%
Draw24.6%
Burton Albion26.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
Both teams to scoreYes59.4%
No40.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.8%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Peterborough win23.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss55.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
2-19.2%
1-07.7%

Peterborough vs Burton Albion stats

Peterborough and Burton Albion recent form

newest first
Peterborough WLLDDL
Burton Albion LLWDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Peterborough and Burton Albion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Peterborough record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Burton Albion record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

Peterborough vs Burton Albion head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Peterborough wins 4Draws 2Burton Albion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19PeterboroughBurton AlbionLeague One1-1
2025-10-18Burton AlbionPeterboroughLeague One0-1
2025-01-01Burton AlbionPeterboroughLeague One2-2
2024-12-04PeterboroughBurton AlbionLeague One0-1
2024-03-09Burton AlbionPeterboroughLeague One1-3
2023-11-25PeterboroughBurton AlbionLeague One4-0
2023-03-14Burton AlbionPeterboroughLeague One2-5
2022-10-08PeterboroughBurton AlbionLeague One1-1
2021-03-06Burton AlbionPeterboroughLeague One2-1
2020-10-27PeterboroughBurton AlbionLeague One2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Peterborough vs Burton Albion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 23.9%, away 25.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.82 3.98 3.70
Bet365 1.83 3.80 3.80
BetVictor 1.87 3.80 3.70
Betano 1.85 3.95 3.60
Betfair 1.80 4.00 3.90
Dafabet 1.90 3.90 3.70
Marathonbet 1.80 3.98 3.72
Pinnacle 1.88 4.18 3.68
SBO 1.85 3.19 3.17
William Hill 1.85 3.60 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.84 —
X 3.89 ▼ -0.01
2 3.70 ▲ +0.05

13 snapshots recorded, from .