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League One · Full time ·Matchday 10

Doncaster vs Burton Albion

1 – 0 Full time

12′Jordan ThomasT. Nixon
39′Matthew Dennis
41′Owen Bailey
45′Leon Ayinde
45′Will CollarToby Sibbick
70′Robbie Gotts
71′Matthew DennisGbemi Arubi
71′Charlie WebsterKain Adom
74′Brandon HanlanIsaac Hutchinson
80′Leon AyindeHakeeb Adelakun
80′Jack ArmerH. Araujo
84′H. Araujo
89′Hakeeb Adelakun

Keepmoat Stadium, DoncasterReferee: Blair Harrison

Doncaster 53%
Draw 24%
Burton Albion 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 20
1 Shots on target 5
43 Possession % 57
3 Corners 12
7 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0
5 Saves 0
251 Accurate passes 333

Doncaster vs Burton Albion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Doncaster vs Burton Albion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDoncasterDrawBurton Albion
Model44.8%26.8%28.4%
Market55.6%23.7%20.7%
Final52.9%24.5%22.6%
Edge-2.7%+0.8%+1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Doncaster

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.25.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Doncaster ↓ / Burton Albion → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 13% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Doncaster and Burton Albion expected goals

Doncaster 1.61
Burton Albion 1.25

Total expected goals: 2.86

Doncaster and Burton Albion attack and defence ratings

Doncaster

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Burton Albion

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Doncaster vs Burton Albion: result vs prediction

Doncaster 1 – 0 Burton Albion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Doncaster vs Burton Albion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Doncaster 52.9% 1.89 -2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.5% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.2% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.4% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.2% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Doncaster52.9%
Draw24.5%
Burton Albion22.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%
Both teams to scoreYes58.2%
No41.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.4%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)47.1%
Handicap -1Doncaster win23.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss55.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
2-19.3%
1-08.1%

Doncaster vs Burton Albion stats

Doncaster and Burton Albion recent form

newest first
Doncaster WLLDDL
Burton Albion LWDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Doncaster and Burton Albion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Doncaster record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Burton Albion record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Doncaster vs Burton Albion head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Doncaster wins 3Draws 2Burton Albion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-03Burton AlbionDoncasterLeague One1-2
2025-10-04DoncasterBurton AlbionLeague One1-1
2023-11-07DoncasterBurton AlbionEFL Trophy2-1
2022-04-23DoncasterBurton AlbionLeague One2-0
2021-11-27Burton AlbionDoncasterLeague One2-0
2021-04-13DoncasterBurton AlbionLeague One0-3
2020-12-19Burton AlbionDoncasterLeague One1-3
2019-11-02DoncasterBurton AlbionLeague One2-2
2019-01-19DoncasterBurton AlbionLeague One2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Doncaster vs Burton Albion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.6%, draw 23.7%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.66 4.05 4.55
Bet365 1.67 3.80 4.75
BetVictor 1.70 3.80 4.80
Betano 1.70 3.85 4.45
Betfair 1.73 4.00 4.50
Dafabet 1.70 4.00 4.80
Marathonbet 1.64 4.05 4.60
Pinnacle 1.72 4.22 4.47
SBO 1.62 3.42 4.18
William Hill 1.67 3.90 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.69 ▼ -0.11
X 3.95 ▲ +0.43
2 4.53 ▲ +0.38

27 snapshots recorded, from .