Doncaster
vs
Burton Albion
Garuda Lions Prediction: Doncaster
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Doncaster vs Burton Albion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Doncaster vs Burton Albion
| Probability | Doncaster | Draw | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.8% | 26.8% | 28.4% |
| Market | 55.8% | 23.9% | 20.4% |
| Final | 53.0% | 24.6% | 22.4% |
| Edge | -10.9% | +2.9% | +8.0% |
Why Doncaster
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.25.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion match preview
In the upcoming League One match, Doncaster faces Burton Albion with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. Doncaster holds a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 26% and Burton Albion at 24%. The expected goals for Doncaster are 1.61 compared to Burton Albion's 1.25, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Doncaster, with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Doncaster with a record of W-L-L-D-D-L, while Burton Albion has a more favorable L-W-D-L-D-W. In their last two head-to-head matches, Doncaster has secured 1 win and 1 draw against Burton Albion, who has yet to win in this matchup. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 54%, and both teams to score is at 58%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Doncaster and Burton Albion expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Doncaster and Burton Albion attack and defence ratings
Doncaster
Burton Albion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Sheffield Wednesday — team news & stats
- Leicester vs Peterborough
- Bradford v Leyton Orient — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading — team news & stats
- Wycombe v Luton — match page
- Stevenage vs Wigan — team news & stats
- Cambridge United vs Blackpool
- Mansfield Town v Bromley — match page
Before and after this match
Doncaster vs Burton Albion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 53.0% | 1.89 | -10.9% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 53.0% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Burton Albion | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Doncaster win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
Doncaster vs Burton Albion stats
Doncaster and Burton Albion recent form
| Doncaster |
WLLDDL |
| Burton Albion |
LWDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Doncaster and Burton Albion season so far
Doncaster record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Burton Albion | Doncaster | League One | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Doncaster | Burton Albion | League One | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-07 | Doncaster | Burton Albion | EFL Trophy | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-23 | Doncaster | Burton Albion | League One | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-27 | Burton Albion | Doncaster | League One | 2-0 |
| 2021-04-13 | Doncaster | Burton Albion | League One | 0-3 |
| 2020-12-19 | Burton Albion | Doncaster | League One | 1-3 |
| 2019-11-02 | Doncaster | Burton Albion | League One | 2-2 |
| 2019-01-19 | Doncaster | Burton Albion | League One | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Doncaster vs Burton Albion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.8%, draw 23.9%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.05 | 4.55 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 4.05 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.18 | 4.44 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.34 | 4.11 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .