Notts County
vs
Oxford United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Notts County vs Oxford United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Notts County vs Oxford United
| Probability | Notts County | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.2% | 30.6% | 39.2% |
| Market | 37.4% | 27.5% | 35.1% |
| Final | 35.6% | 28.3% | 36.1% |
| Edge | -7.2% | +3.1% | +4.1% |
Why Oxford United
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Oxford United below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Notts County vs Oxford United match preview
Notts County faces Oxford United in a League One clash with kickoff set for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, assigning probabilities of 35% for a Notts County win, 28% for a draw, and 37% for an Oxford United victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at an 11% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Notts County recording two losses and three draws in their last five matches, while Oxford United has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Notts County is projected to score 1.07, while Oxford United is slightly favored with an expected 1.26 goals. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 41%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 48%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Notts County and Oxford United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Notts County and Oxford United attack and defence ratings
Notts County
Oxford United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Notts County vs Oxford United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 36.1% | 2.77 | +4.1% | 2.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 35.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Oxford United | 36.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.4% |
| No | 51.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-1 | 10.9% |
Notts County vs Oxford United stats
Notts County and Oxford United recent form
| Notts County |
LLDDWD |
| Oxford United |
DWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Notts County and Oxford United season so far
Notts County record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Notts County vs Oxford United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-02 | Notts County | Oxford United | League Two | 2-4 |
| 2015-08-18 | Oxford United | Notts County | League Two | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Notts County vs Oxford United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 27.5%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.51 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.50 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.96 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .