Stevenage
vs
Wigan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stevenage
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Stevenage vs Wigan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stevenage vs Wigan
| Probability | Stevenage | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.0% | 29.6% | 18.4% |
| Market | 44.4% | 29.0% | 26.6% |
| Final | 46.3% | 29.1% | 24.6% |
| Edge | +7.6% | +0.6% | -8.3% |
Why Stevenage
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stevenage below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Stevenage vs Wigan match preview
Stevenage hosts Wigan in a League One clash with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model gives Stevenage a 46% chance of winning, while Wigan has a 25% probability of securing victory, and a draw stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Stevenage, which has a 15% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Stevenage will score 1.42, compared to Wigan's 0.74.
In terms of recent form, Stevenage has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Wigan has struggled with one win, one draw, and four losses in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Stevenage with one win and one draw against Wigan, who has not won in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stevenage and Wigan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Stevenage and Wigan attack and defence ratings
Stevenage
Wigan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stevenage vs Wigan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 46.3% | 2.16 | +7.6% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 46.3% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Wigan | 24.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.1% |
| No | 58.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Stevenage vs Wigan stats
Stevenage and Wigan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stevenage and Wigan season so far
Stevenage record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Wigan record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Stevenage vs Wigan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Stevenage | Wigan | League One | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Wigan | Stevenage | League One | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-18 | Stevenage | Wigan | League One | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-24 | Wigan | Stevenage | League One | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-27 | Wigan | Stevenage | League One | 2-3 |
| 2023-10-07 | Stevenage | Wigan | League One | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stevenage vs Wigan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 29.0%, away 26.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.12 | 3.35 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.28 | 3.63 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 2.96 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .