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League One · Full time ·Matchday 10

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading

1 – 5 Full time

28′Haydon Roberts
38′P. Lane
47′Cohen Bramall
55′Daniel BarlaserAlex Gilbey
55′Curtis Nelsonibrahim fullah
64′Kyreece Joshua Lisbie
73′Marvin Ekpiteta
80′Kyreece Joshua Lisbie
81′Jamie ReidJacob Brown
82′Gethin JonesSamuel Silvera
82′Marvin EkpitetaJack Sanders
85′Aaron Collins
86′Haydon RobertsDaniel·Kyerewaa
86′Kyreece Joshua LisbieRandell Williams
87′Jacob Brown
90′Andy RinomhotaLiam Fraser

Stadium MK, Milton KeynesReferee: Matthew Corlett

Milton Keynes Dons 35%
Draw 27%
Reading 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 6
55 Possession % 45
2 Corners 5
13 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 7
1 Saves 3
308 Accurate passes 236

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMilton Keynes DonsDrawReading
Model32.6%27.8%39.6%
Market36.3%26.5%37.2%
Final35.4%26.9%37.8%
Edge-0.9%+0.3%+0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Reading

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Milton Keynes ↓ / Reading → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Milton Keynes Dons and Reading expected goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1.30
Reading 1.46

Total expected goals: 2.76

Milton Keynes Dons and Reading attack and defence ratings

Milton Keynes Dons

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Reading

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading: result vs prediction

Milton Keynes Dons 1 – 5 Reading

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Reading 37.8% 2.65 +0.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.1% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.1% 1.75 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.4% 1.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Milton Keynes Dons35.4%
Draw26.9%
Reading37.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%
Both teams to scoreYes57.1%
No42.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.2%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)64.6%
Handicap -1Reading win19.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss60.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-28.8%
0-18.0%

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading stats

Milton Keynes Dons and Reading recent form

newest first
Milton Keynes Dons DDDLDD
Reading DDWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Milton Keynes Dons and Reading going into this match

league record before kick-off

Milton Keynes Dons record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Reading record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Milton Keynes Dons wins 2Draws 2Reading wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-07ReadingMilton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy1-0
2023-11-04ReadingMilton Keynes DonsFA Cup3-2
2016-08-23ReadingMilton Keynes DonsLeague Cup3-3
2016-01-16Milton Keynes DonsReadingChampionship1-0
2015-08-22ReadingMilton Keynes DonsChampionship0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 26.5%, away 37.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.57 3.50 2.50
Bet365 2.50 3.60 2.50
BetVictor 2.55 3.60 2.55
Betano 2.62 3.50 2.47
Betfair 2.55 3.50 2.63
Dafabet 2.65 3.65 2.55
Marathonbet 2.57 3.50 2.50
Pinnacle 2.61 3.64 2.62
SBO 2.44 3.16 2.35
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.56 ▲ +0.06
X 3.50 ▲ +0.04
2 2.50 ▼ -0.06

27 snapshots recorded, from .