Doncaster
vs
Oxford United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Doncaster vs Oxford United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Doncaster vs Oxford United
| Probability | Doncaster | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 28.0% | 39.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.8% | 28.0% | 39.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oxford United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.98.
Doncaster vs Oxford United match preview
In the upcoming League One match, Doncaster faces Oxford United with model probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Doncaster has a 33% chance of winning, while Oxford United is slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Doncaster recording one win in their last six matches, while Oxford United has secured three wins in their last six.
The expected goals for the match suggest a close contest, with Doncaster at 1.29 and Oxford United at 1.43. There is a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals, and 57% likelihood that both teams will score. Overall, this match presents an intriguing challenge for both sides as they seek to improve their standings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Doncaster and Oxford United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Doncaster and Oxford United attack and defence ratings
Doncaster
Oxford United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Doncaster vs Oxford United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Doncaster | 32.8% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Oxford United | 39.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
Doncaster vs Oxford United stats
Doncaster and Oxford United recent form
| Doncaster |
LWLLWW |
| Oxford United |
WDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Doncaster and Oxford United season so far
Doncaster record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.